"The Pharisees and Sadducees came to Jesus and tested him by asking him to show them a sign from heaven. He replied, "When evening comes, you say, 'It will be fair weather, for the sky is red,' and in the morning, 'Today it will be stormy, for the sky is red and overcast.' You know how to interpret the appearance of the sky, but you cannot interpret the signs of the times." -Matthew 16:1-3

By now you must have heard of Dr. James Dobson's and other Evangelical Christian leaders' threat to back a third party "true conservative" candidate if the Republican party chooses Rudy Giuliani as its nominee. Here's an interview that Dr. Dobson recently did with Sean Hannity.

I suspect that most of us would have the same initial reaction. "What are they trying to do? Hand the election to Hillary?!?!" Backing a third-party candidate would surely hand the election to Hillary Clinton and honestly, would be madness. Before you start hyperventilating, consider my interpretation of these "signs of the times". I have reason to suspect that Dr. Dobson and his cohorts are acting solely as an attempt to influence the results of the primary.

"Aaron, didn't you read a word he said?"

Well, yes, I did. However, I think that the purpose of those words are subtly different than their literal meaning. My theory, and obviously it is just a theory at this point, is that Dobson's and his cohorts' overarching mission is to force the Republican party to nominate someone other than Rudy Giuliani. After all, by sharing what the consequences would be, one would surmise that the purpose of those words is to demonstrate a punishment for an undesired action and that said words would serve as a deterrent against the undesired action.

That being said, one would next be led to wonder why Dr. Dobson and his cohorts don't simply just endorse someone else now, like Bob Jones just did with Governor Romney. Doesn't that show a lack of foresight on their part? The answer is no. What is very interesting about this is that they have already ruled out several candidates without endorsing another. Dr. Dobson has made it very clear that he will not accept McCain, Thompson, and obviously Giuliani as the Republican nominee. That leaves you with Governor Romney and the lower tiered candidates, such as Mike Huckabee.

At first glance one would think that Huckabee would be a good choice for Dr. Dobson and his cohorts. He fulfills their criteria, is a Southerner, and he is also an Evangelical Christian. However, I suspect they realize that a Huckabee endorsement on their part would go a long way towards handing the nomination to Rudy Giuliani. Realistically, Mike Huckabee has the same chance of attaining the Republican nomination as a six-pack of beer has a chance of surviving a Super Bowl party. (Personally, I hope Huckabee realizes that fact and drops out soon to focus on a run for Pryor's Senate seat in Arkansas, which is a race he can actually win.)

Given my assumption that Dr. Dobson and the other Evangelical leaders understand that fact, it leads me to think that they will inevitably support Governor Romney as the only one who shares their values AND possesses the ability to defeat Giuliani. If one connects the dots, that appears to be the subtext. The reason that I think they are dragging their feet, although some are starting to endorse Governor Romney as Bob Jones did, is that I think they are stubborn. I think that while they realize that there isn't an alternative to Romney, that they are waiting just a little while longer to see if someone like Huckabee can emerge as a serious contender for the nomination. The reason for that is that I think they are still a little leery of supporting a Mormon, because that hasn't happened before. As an Evangelical Christian myself, I can empathize with them wrestling about this decision. However, I think that they understand that we are electing a Commander-In-Chief, not a Pastor-In-Chief.

My theory about their reluctance does illustrate what some have feared to be the "Mormon Problem". However, if I am correct, all the "Mormon Problem" does is delay support rather than prevent it. There are worse "problems" a candidate could have. After all, who would you rather be in this situation, Rudy Giuliani or Mitt Romney? Romney appears to be where the "signs of the times" are leading.