In what many palmetto political insiders will find as a huge surprise, Mitt Romney won tonight’s Charleston County GOP straw poll by double digit margins.
Why the surprise? 2 reasons: First, outgoing Charleston County GOP Chairwoman Cyndi Mosteller is a huge McCain supporter and has been working her members for months for the McCain campaign. She gained national attention a few months back for accosting Romney for his faith during a SCGOP executive committee meeting. Second, the lowcountry has always been McCain’s South Carolina stronghold and is where he received the majority of his votes against Bush in 2000.
I'm not too big on these straw polls out county dinners where some of the candidates speak. It's great to win . . . but people are prone to vote for the guy who showed up (as evidenced by McCain's 65% in Western Michigan similar event earlier this week).
Still, getting as much as Rudy and McCain combined never hurts . . . poor Cox showed up and only got 2 people to vote for him.
That's awesome news for Romney! Fred Thompson's presence has taken away from McCain and Giuliani. Romney's increased platform and exposure have continued to build and his numbers are climbing IN SPITE of the presence of Fred Thompson.
I know it is Zogby, but a new Nevada state poll has Mitt tied with McCain at 15%. Rudy leads with 37%, F.Thompson is at 7%. http://www.hedgehogreport.com/index.php/category/election-2008/election-2008-polls/
Total receipts were $23,434,634.25, all for the Primary.
The $23.4 million figure is comprised of not only contributions and the governor's loan, but several other items:
Net contributions $20,737,149.05
Loan from Gov. Romney $2,350,000.00
Refunded contributions $245,539.18
Vendor refunds $99,420.01
Interest income $2,426.01
Other refunds $100.00
Number of donations and contributors:
36,538 donations, 32,074 unique donors
Top 10 states for donations:
In order: California, Utah, Massachusetts, Texas, Michigan, New York, Florida, Arizona, Ohio, Connecticut
Breakdown of itemized (over $200) vs. un-itemized (under $200) contributions: 38%, or 12,236 donors, were itemized (over $200); 62%, or 19,838, were un-itemized (under $200)
Internet Contributions: Over $7.2 million was raised online ($7,206,216.59). This breaks down into:
$3,365,625.59 in pure and simple website fundraising, and $3,840,591.00 raised through Quick ComMitt, our online fundraising pledge entry tool
Disbursements
Cash on hand: 11,863,652.79
Investment rate: Our investment rate was 49.37%. Total receipts were $23,434,634.25. Total disbursed was $11,570,981.46, leaving $11,863,652.79 cash on hand.
The MSM will have a hay day with this on Monday. They'll ignore that California was the largest contributor, and hone in on the per capita numbers, putting Utah in first. But 11M in cash? That's great. With only 40K unique donors, I am guessing many people have been holding back to test his legitimacy. Now that Romney is bonafide, I predict more people will be jumping on the bandwagon.
Let's assume that all of his unique donors (32000) max out their contributions. That means if there is no growth in his donor base, he will still be able to raise 73.6 million dollars. Wow!
Now, let's assume that the donor base grows at a modest 4% each month. In ten months, it would translate into 109 million. It is not unrealistic to see it happen.
If the campaign is out there reading this, may I suggest a tactic. Not sure if it legal or if there is an ethical problem, but since the other campaigns have listed their donors, would it not make sense to contact these people on these lists as well? If you only get a 5% response rate that still is a valuable, untapped market.
As for the Republicans, the predominant notion that Rudy Giuliani is the frontrunner is a farce. Yes, he leads in just about every poll in every state among Republican voters. But I've been around national GOP politics for too many decades not to know one essential thing: To win, a candidate must have superior grassroots organization. Giuliani doesn't.
The leader in this race is the one who barely scratches in polls right now, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney.
To borrow Barbara Bush's line from 2004, "I've seen this movie before, and I don't like the way it ends." Well, I don't know about the ending, but I can tell you that Romney has signed up virtually every Bush Republican in every key state. In Florida, he has the Jeb Bush organization and most of the prominent, longtime Republican establishment behind him.
John McCain likely will have Florida's governor, Charlie Crist, in his corner.
What does Giuliani have? The driest, least prepossessing political figure in that state, former Congressman and now state Attorney General Bill McCollum. An odder couple than Giuliani and McCollum would be hard to find.
Yes, McCain has name ID around the country. And, were they to run, unannounced candidates Fred Thompson and Newt Gingrich could capture Republican voters desperate to reestablish the party's pre-George W. Bush philosophical ground.
Be all that as it may, you can take this to the bank: Mitt Romney will end up being the man they all have to beat. He will spend his mountain of money on a thing called television, and that will allow him to hide his ultra-sophisticated personality from those wary of having an urbane president.
Once he's known, he'll have the might of the GOP's old guard behind him.
The candidates may not know the best road to win the presidential race, but too many in media don't even seem to know what planet the race is being held on.
First, I hope Republius can see this as a partial answer to his question on Gramm and Romney. I am not so presumptuous to claim Romney as the front runner, but I will say he is the guy in first place...that's a joke. Actually I think he is probably on even par now with McCain. Except Romney is headed north and McCain is headed south.
Rudy is still in the lead, albeit not as comfortably as he was in March. If I was a supporter I would be leary to send Rudy a check now when you consider his knack for saying liberal things, no ground structure, and no substantive ideas presented as of yet. But hey, people have done crazier things. Remember the Yugo?
I remember in February reading on Redstate and other blogs I frequent that McCain had a juggernaut in South Carolina that was tough to beat- I don't think anyone would actually claim that today. McCain does have a good ground game, one that will carry him through to the primaries, even if he ended up polling at 3%.
Yesterday I showed the folks here the clear muscle Romney has built in Michigan, but now we have this today. I do agree with Towery's assertion that Romney's campaign force is going to be the team to beat. The biggest miscalculation is to somehow think this guy can't forecast his future earnings and have a longterm game plan. Clearly when you think of Romney's organization (already paying off in IA, SC, MI, and NH,) fundraising, policy proposals and his past track record there is no denying that Romney is the guy to beat.
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In an excellent response, poster HeavyM at Race42008 makes these excellent rebuttals:
Why Mitt Romney Isn’t Phil Gramm - The Conclusive Decision
1. Phil Gramm raised $19 million total for his entire campaign, in an era where there were no limits on campaign donations. Indeed, much of that ($4.1 million) was raised in one night by hitting up huge corporate donors. In contrast, Mitt Romney has raised $21 million in just three months, and people were limited to a maximum contribution of $2,300 - meaning Romney has a much larger and much more grass roots base of support.
2. Phil Gramm’s campaign was well known and well maligned for its deficits in the areas of structure and intellect. In contrast, Romney’s campaign thrives on those very two areas.
3. Phil Gramm often trailed his opponents by 30-40 points in the polls, and sometimes nearly 50 points. In contrast, Romney is polling within 15 points nationally according to Rasmussen, is within 3-17 in Iowa according to who you ask, and is within 6-7 or tied for the lead in New Hampshire according to different polls.
4. Phil Gramm constantly misspoke about the abortion issue during his campaign, a la Rudy Giuliani, saying that although he was pro-life, he wouldn’t make that a part of his campaign, earning the ire of socons everywhere. He even hired pro-choice staffers. In contrast, Mitt openly talks about abortion and his pro-life conversion and recognizes its importance in the race.
5. Phil Gramm ran as a fiscal conservative, but was maligned by his opponents, the Democrats, and the media for bringing home huge amounts of pork for his homestate of Texas (as well as his own actual bragging about how much he was bringing in for TX). In contrast, Mitt Romney is running as a fiscal conservative who governed fiscally in Massachusetts and is known as a waste-eliminator.
6. Phil Gramm suffered several scandals coming to light during the campaign, including his “unknowingly” funding a porn production to the tune of $7,500 and being involved in some very shady quid pro quo Savings and Loans deals. In contrast, Mitt Romney is known as the squeaky clean candidate in this race - the worst dirt anyone has on him is that he once donated $250 to a Democrat in a primary campaign.
7. Phil Gramm was known as harsh and cutthroat during his Senate tenure and on the campaign trail, and was known to berate his staff and his aids. In contrast, Mitt Romney is personable, charismatic, and likable, and definitely not known as mean by any stretch.
8. Let’s be honest, here… Phil Gramm was kind of an ugly dude. Mitt Romney, on the other hand, well… it’s the hair, baby.
Along with the email yesterday asking for feedback on foreign policy issues... I can tell you from personal experience that Mitt means it. He LOVES feedback.
It's a great question posed from a prospective Commander in Chief. Taxes are the bane of our existence and the current system is crippling us. The only answer is to eliminate the IRS completely in its current state and implement a consumption tax. It's the only answer and the best answer.
...Also of note is Romney’s showing in the poll. This is the first InsiderAdvantage/ Majority Opinion survey in major Southern states to show Romney in double digits. The Fox News poll also showed Romney with 14 percent. This reflects the candidate’s many visits to the state and the fact that South Carolina voters are looking at the potential contest more closely than in most other Southern states.
Things are tightening up in SC. Remember this is the same number Romney received in the recent Fox News Poll.
Ryan Sager of the New York Sun, who has been a strong and sympathetic pro-Giuliani media voice, questions the preparation of the Mayor for his visit to Florida last month in being inevitably pressed for his position on the Terri Schiavo case.
Manager Terry Nelson is trimming some of the organization's vestigial edges to pare down costs and more efficiently distribute key staff. Contrary to rumors, the campaign is not shedding weight in order to slow down its cash burn rate.
Nelson has decided to eliminated several staff positions from the campaign's May budget, some yet to be filled. In addition, several campaign consultants will see their contracts modified. Others currently on retainer will work for the campaign on a per-project basis.
Key departments, including political affairs, communications and the field staff in early primaries states -- were spared, and some instances, are still hiring.
A campaign aide characterized the changes as "minor adjustments."
After having raised $12.5 million, a solid but below-average sum for the Republican field, the campaign revamped its finance operation, bringing in Republican lobbyist and fundraising wizard Tom Loeffler to oversee fundraising, and asking Republican strategist Steve Schmidt to look after spending more carefully.
During February and March, McCain's campaign hired a staff of more than 120, and it staged several expensive bus trips through Iowa and New Hampshire. A trip through South Carolina is planned for next week.
Because a detailed accounting of McCain's spending hasn't yet be released, it's not clear whether the campaign began to pay the legion of consultants it has signed up.
The campaign aide declined to say how much McCain spent during the first quarter although McCain advisers have emphasized that the campaign's monetary difficulties revolved around the tasks of raising money, rather than the rate at which the money was spent.
Ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney raised $24M and spent $12M.
McCain's first quarter filings will be available on Saturday. [MARC AMBINDER]
Be sure you read the detailed response of our own Kyle Hampton below
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