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Saturday, August 11, 2007
posted by Jeff Fuller | 9:05 PM | permalink
Gov Mitt Romney won the 2007 Ames straw poll!!

He did so handily and this is the largest "margin of victory" ever in the Ames Straw Poll (Bush beat Forbes by ~10% in '99 and Gramm and Dole tied in '95).

Results:

1. Mitt Romney 32%
2. Mike Huckabee 18%
3. Sam Brownback 15%
4. Tom Tancredo 14%
5. Ron Paul 9%
6. Tommy Thompson 7%

Then . . . the "also rans":
7. Fred Thompson 1%
8. Rudy Giuliani 1%

9. Duncan Hunter 1%
10. John McCain 0.7%
11. John Cox 0.5%

Now, this strong win for Romney was expected and was "spun" pre-emptively by rivals as Romney "buying this victory" or "paying for votes".

First off, no Romney supporters were paid to come to the straw poll (campaign staff excluded of course . . . but Romney has less than 100 Iowans on staff who could vote . . . so that doesn't explain where the votes came from.)

Also, what person would "jump at the great deal" of giving up an entire Saturday during peak vacation season, getting up before 7AM, waiting on a bus to take a 2-4 hr bus ride EACH WAY on a very hot and sweltering day (the heat index was far over 100 degrees), all for a T-shirt, a $35 entry ticket, some music, and a meal? You see, short of unknown $100 bills slipped into everyone else's pockets but mine, there is no way for Romney or any other candidate to "pay for votes" at the Ames Straw Poll. You have to have actual Iowans who are actually motivated enough for your candidacy to go through a long and difficult day.

The "Cry Babies" will keep cryin' but don't shed no tear for them.

Jeff Fuller
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9 Comments:


Expect to see lots of spin about why Romney should have done a lot better. For instance, look at Liz Mair's posts at www.andrewsullivan.com



It must have been hard to let Romney buy your tickets and meal with all that yummy money he got donated from all those companies making Huge profits from the war in Iraq.
Yeah that must have took all of motivated, lol.
He bought 10,000 tickets for everyone... so why did only 4,516 show? Lack of actually motivated?

By Anonymous Wondering, at August 12, 2007 12:31 AM  


Dear "Wondering," I'm wondering why you can't seem to form a cogent sentence, or a lucid line of reasoning. Hey, are you a Brownback supporter?



Sorry, but Liz Mair is an unsufferable fool who supported posterchild RINO Lincoln Chafee over a real conservative who could have actually kept the GOP in control of the senate. I have no use for her. That's funny that she's posting with Sullivan after her gopprogress blog died. They so deserve each other. A miserable pair.

By Anonymous Anonymous, at August 12, 2007 12:50 AM  


mitt:
look mom, i just donated more the republican party than i've ever done in my life.

but i've made it very clear that support rocky anderson and his impeachment precedings against bush.

doh! i was supposed to save that last bit for the general election



THEDUDE... What the HELL are you smoking???



Those who try to downplay Romney's win (largest margin of victory in history) are fools. As Tancredo said, McCain and Rudy dropped because is was CLEAR that they were going to lose. Plus, McCain didn't even have the money to rent a bus. Romney cut back spending because the victory was certain.

When I see a guy like The Dude (still supporting McCain's imploded campaign) talk trash about Romney's campaign decisions, I have to chuckle.



I was at the Straw Poll yesterday, and it was incredible. I have a hard time believing there were only 4500 of us yellow-shirted supporters there--I wonder how many were turned away from voting? There were two of us in my bus (35 folks) who were turned away. One had a CA drivers license and one forgot to bring ID. Another friend of mine had a US passport (not IA issued, so it didn't count), and got turned away. I know my bus captain didn't call and remind to bring IDs, but that would have been really good to do. I was impressed that they used the bus rides as a chance to show Mitt videos--very good use of time, and got a lot of discussions going. I was amazed at how many "undecided" Mitt supporters were on my bus--I am pretty sure they voted for him, but on the way home we were still fielding and resolving concerns.

As to the Cry Babies about buying votes, ever since I have followed the straw poll, you have had front runners competing at a level that included a lot of spending, including paying for buses. If they want to pretend that that isn't the modern reality, that is fine. What I did see was a LOT of Ron Paul supporters going through the Mitt folks trying to sway votes. Excuse me, but if you (a) try to stop the voting with court action, (b) don't do the campaigning and fund-raising needed to get folks there for you, and then (c) try to poach someone else's bused-in supporters, then I would say you have a pretty hypocritical and poorly conceived campaign.

Mitt had it right when he made the comment a few weeks back that the Straw Poll is a test of organization. George Bush bused in supporters. Brownback and Huckabee only had to look at the past and know what to expect from a true front-runner. We can look at the results and say that it truly was a test of organization. Do you want someone who shows up looking for supporters, or someone running the country who knows how to get the job done, and doesn't underestimate the task at hand?

Last comment--I am really sad at the bridges Huckabee burnt when he started going negative on Mitt. I think he would have made a great vice presidential nominee.



Mitt Hits the Fan,

Your welcome to post here, but theological bashing of any candidate is not welcome. Sorry, I own the URL.




posted by Jeff Fuller | 6:10 PM | permalink
What a great event. I'll get a few pictures up but I'm predicting a pretty solid win by Romney.




Me with Derek Parra (Gold Medalist Speed Skater and Romney Friend)

More to Come Later . . . gotta run back to be around when the results are announced and the cameras come flocking to the Mitt Mobile!

Jeff Fuller
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8 Comments:


HOW EXCITING TO HAVE ACTUALLY BEEN THERE!



It is great to see a Catholic priest with a Mitt Romney sign (right behind Jeff And Mitt)Go Romney!!!!

By Anonymous Just another Mitt Head, at August 11, 2007 9:29 PM  


Great Win for Mitt tonight.
Hard work, strong organization and a POSITIVE message wins the day.

By Anonymous GeorgiaMom, at August 11, 2007 9:56 PM  


Were people even talking about Giuliani & McCain?

By Anonymous bjalder26, at August 11, 2007 10:02 PM  


From Iowa to the Country.



could the 5 brothers serve the United States by forming a boy band?



If they did form a band, I suppose McCain would enact legislation requiring them to let anybody who snuck into their concert without paying stay for free, and everyone else could buy their refreshments.



Well said Bigmo! Can I get another Amen?!




posted by Kyle | 5:42 PM | permalink
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2 Comments:


Consider this: Mr. Mitt says his faith will not effect his decisions in the White House. What kind of man has his Faith but does not follow its teachings when making decisions?

Hypocrisy: The false claim to or pretense of having admirable principles, beliefs, or feelings

By Anonymous Anonymous, at August 16, 2007 9:47 AM  


Comment moderation has been enabled. All comments must be approved by the blog author.

Lets see if you are open enought to post my comment:

Consider this: Mr. Mitt says his faith will not effect his decisions in the White House. What kind of man has his Faith but does not follow its teachings when making decisions?

By Anonymous Anonymous, at August 16, 2007 9:48 AM  



posted by Dave | 2:51 PM | permalink
Mitt Romney is a Mormon. Many Mitt supporters, including Jason and Justin, are themselves Mormons. I am not. I am a Methodist, and a strong Mitt supporter. Which is why it is best that I do this post.

THIS MAKES ME SICK TO MY STOMACH. It is wrong in every sense of the word. Standing there and proclaiming that you know what Jesus Christ, my Lord and Savior, would do is the highest form of blasphemy I can think of. These people should be ashamed of themselves.

From the Boston Globe:

An Iowa Christian group is circulating flyers at today's straw poll urging people not to vote for Mitt Romney, the strong favorite in today's straw poll, because he is a Mormon.

"we strongly believe that Jesus Christ, if he were alive in the flesh in this time and voted, would NEVER vote for Mitt Romney under any circumstances," the flyer says. "Mitt Romney represents Mormonism which is counterfeit Christianity, a cult."

The flyer goes on to cite a list of reasons as to why Christians should not pick a Mormon for president.

On the flip side, it also advises Christian voters to stay away from Rudy Giuliani, Newt Gingrich, John McCain and Fred Thompson because "they can NEVER make a strong case for strong families or for strong Christian values."

Richard Green, a retired pastor from Council Bluffs, Iowa, who was passing out the flyers in one of the convention center parking lots, identified himself as a member of U.S. Christians for Truth, which he said was a group of current and retired pastors in Council Bluffs. He said he was not affiliated with any of the candidates and had not yet decided who he would support in the straw poll.

The flyer is by far the most vitriolic anti-Mormon piece we've seen so far out here in Iowa; Romney aides said they had not seen anything like it.

"Negative attacks are commonplace in the political arena," said Peter Flaherty, Romney's point man for conservative outreach. "But there should be no place for religious bigotry."
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1 Comments:


Sad, but not unprecedented. When Adam Smith accused of not being a Christian he responded by saying, “Ye will say, I am no Christian: I say Ye are no Christians: and there the Account is ballanced. Yet I believe all the honest men among you, are Christians in my Sense of the Word."

In John F. Kennedy’s famous speech, he complained about people passing out religious tracks that misrepresented his religion in order to get people to not vote for him.

I believe it’s these kind of things that lead Jimmy Carter to say, "Too many leaders now, I think, in the Southern Baptist Convention and in other conventions, are trying to act as the Pharisees did, who were condemned by Christ, in trying to define who can and who cannot be considered an acceptable person in the eyes of God. In other words, they're making judgments on behalf of God. I think that's wrong."

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nz0T68JIHnc




posted by Kyle | 2:33 PM | permalink
My money is on Ron Paul.
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4 Comments:


According to Roger Simon at the politico, most of the Ron Paul supporters are from out of state. No IOWA Drivers License.... no vote. Based on his organization, I think Brownback will come in 2nd.

By Anonymous Totipocincy, at August 11, 2007 4:21 PM  


Huckabee maybe Brownback.

Ron Paul's support is an illusion.

By Anonymous GeorgiaMom, at August 11, 2007 4:46 PM  


Ron Paul in second place? You've got to be kidding, right?

Not because I like him the least, but he just doesn't have the ground troops that the other campaigns have....he's NOT presidential...and opposes a major platform of the GOP party of keeping our troops in Iraq until the job is finished! If we pull out now - it will be more disastrous for the Mideast region and the United States!

I hope he finishes at or near last!

By Anonymous Anonymous, at August 11, 2007 4:50 PM  


I wouldn't be surprised if it was Giuliani or Fred Thompson.




posted by jason | 8:29 AM | permalink
Sen. Dan Rutherford, Illinois State Chairman of the Romney campaign, in conjunction with the Committee to Elect Delegates has offered up free bus rides for anyone interested in attending the Illinois Straw Poll next Thursday, August 16th.

Busses are leaving from the following places:

Batavia

South Suburbs

Chicago

Lombard

Onarga/Paxton

Pontiac

Peoria

Edwardsville


Carbondale


Bloomington

If you don't live by a scheduled bus location, but are still interested in attending, go here.

If you are going, let me know: jasonpbonham@gmail.com
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1 Comments:


I'm going-see you all there!

By Anonymous bjalder26, at August 11, 2007 9:28 PM  



Friday, August 10, 2007
posted by jason | 9:47 PM | permalink

I have commented before on the systemic animosity out of the Brownback camp.

Evidence #25467390011a:

I sent out an email to Romney supporters in Illinois about an event. In the process I inadvertently included someone on the list who is a Brownback supporter, here is there response:


TAKE ME OFF YOUR LIST..ROMNEY IS NOT MY MAN...BROWNBECK IS..


OK, just calm down and step away from the microphone.
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5 Comments:


And learn to spell maybe?



Did the "supporter" really mispell Brownback's name? Brownspeck? Sounds more like it.

By Anonymous GeorgiaMom, at August 10, 2007 10:22 PM  


That's the exact spelling from the email.



From the NY Times' blog:

"One early prediction: Sam Brownback, the Kansas senator, told reporters that he expected to defeat Mr. Romney. “The less will be that Iowans don’t seem him as a consistent conservative,” said Mr. Brownback."

Is this guy for real? Does he not understand anything about the expectations game?

By Anonymous Anonymous, at August 11, 2007 12:26 PM  


BROWNBECK?!? Makes you wonder if he was thinking of Brownback, or Beck's beer?




posted by jason | 4:29 PM | permalink
Eric Dondero at Mainstream Libertarian has an interesting article about a Libertarian site encouraging people to vote for Romney.


In 1994, Senatorial candidate Mitt Romney was endorsed and heavily backed by the libertarian-leaning Republican Liberty Caucus in his race against Ted Kennedy. More recently Romney made a very libertarian statement to the AP on pornography:

"I am not pursuing an effort to try and stop adults from being able to acquire or see things I find objectionable; that's their right. But I do vehemently oppose practices or business procedures that will allow kids to be exposed to obscenity."

Now at least one Web Blog is urging Libertarians to consider supporting Romney. The site Independent Libertarian Spirit is appropriately Christian libertarian.


For certain Mitt has one thing libertarian Ron Paul does not have: A chance.
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0 Comments:



posted by Kyle | 12:42 PM | permalink
24 Hours - parts 1 and 2


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posted by Kyle | 11:55 AM | permalink
On the eve of the Ames Straw Poll, I wanted to take a look back at where the Romney campaign has been and how it got to this place as the favorite to win the straw poll. RCP provides a nice graphical display of Romney’s rise.




Six months ago it would have seemed almost unthinkable for Romney to have attained front-runner status. Indeed many people were arguing that he should have been lumped into the group of second-tier candidates. That time seems like a distant memory now.

Now as front-runner, we need to help Mitt meet and exceed his expectations. As Mitt says, changing America always starts in Iowa.

For anyone that can, get over to Ames and vote for Mitt.

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1 Comments:


Why included UNdeclared people in polls at this stage of the race?
And if they are going to included undeclared candidates, why not ME?

By Anonymous GeorgiaMom, at August 11, 2007 6:49 AM  



Thursday, August 9, 2007
posted by jason | 5:23 PM | permalink
Jim Geraghty took the time to respond to my post, and in the process offered up some rather compelling arguments. To sum it up:

My definition of “supporting our nation” is larger than his.

Not that I could change his mind, but I have a few quibbles relating to how he comes to his definition.

I'd rather define "the national interest" a bit more narrowly, by limiting it to circumstances where the benefit (or at least potential benefit) to everyone is clear. Serving the country in uniform, or even working as a fireman, or cop, or first responder, or even most volunteer work, or even donating blood - that I would contend all fits the definition of national service, because you're giving something of yourself for a cause that benefits everyone. Even though the "not in my name" crowd might insist that they don't want the U.S. military to do anything, their denial doesn't refute the fact that we're all safer, and our lives are better, because of their efforts and their sacrifice. (And their families, for that matter.) Ditto for all the other groups I've mentioned, and the ones that I'll inevitably be reminded of - our intelligence agencies, our diplomats, the CDC, our doctors. Think of where we'd be if the sanitation guys didn't pick up the garbage twice a week.


Jim makes the case that the term “supporting your nation” should be limited to, “circumstances where the benefit (or at least potential benefit) to everyone is clear.” The argument is now statistical. Everybody means 100%

Do any of the mentioned jobs Geraghty mentions fail to meet the 100% standard Geraghty now sets? Can we knock any of them down to 99% or lower?

Let’s try Doctors. Ask the homeopath, religious zealot who does not believe in medical care or even those who can't afford there bills if doctors are supporting our nation. Policemen? Ask the residents of Signal Hill California in the 1960's or the libertarian pulled over for a seatbelt ticket. Trash Man? Ask the prosecutor who is fighting the mob and exposing the shell operations of landfills. CDC? Ask the medical conspiracy theorist/ John Birchers. Intelligence Officers? Ask those who think the CIA oversteps there bounds. The list could go on. Geraghty agrees that even serving in the military as “service to our nation” is disputable to a certain segment of the population.

None of these vocations enjoy a 100% approval rating, yet I would say they all support our nation.

Where do we draw the line? When a certain job meets 95% approval is it now worthy of the category of supporting our nationn? 75%? 50%? Where is the cut off? I think you get my point.




Jason Bonham makes the case that supporting conservative causes is in the best interest of the country - and I agree with him. But I also recognize that a big chunk of the country disagrees, and that that chunk's ideas of "the national interest" would make me recoil. So I'm a little wary of defining supporting a particular candidate as a form of serving your country for a couple of reaons. Would that make voting for the other guy a form of opposing your country? Is voting for the other candidate a mild form of treason?


He is right, and I thought of that while writing my original article. But remember our world survives on adversity and opposites. All things partisan need polar opposites. It's the Yin and the Yang. Or nation's government was set up on the notion there would be opposing views, and that colliding opposing views -in the end- would serve our national interest. Our system of government has three distinct branches, but through the system of checks and balances we arrive at a point of pragmatism that allows us to move forward. If we all had the same agenda and philosophy, we would have no need of separation of powers, or a representative legislature. We would be surrounded by “yes” men and soon be in trouble. These opposing views challenge us to think and work harder, thus serving our nations interest.

Now some views represented area diametrically opposed to the good of the nation, such as an anarchist or infanticide. Yet it is no more reasonable to say all in the political process are now no longer supporting our nation because of a few bad eggs. It would be like saying cops don’t support our nation because some are rogue.


In conclusion it's all subjective. For Romney and those who agree with his stances it is perfectly acceptable to say by supporting him you are supporting the nation as it would be for any candidate. Many may not agree, but it certainly was not out of the realm of possibility.


I should just add, I don't disagree that this statement was politically unwise, it obviously was, I just disagree that the statement on it's own holds no basis.
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3 Comments:


Hopefully this ends the semantic squabble over the use of "supporting our nation".

I don't think I'm alone in saying "Nobody really cares!!!"

Can anyone really justify this as significant?

By Anonymous Anonymous, at August 10, 2007 11:15 AM  


As silly as this whole argument is, I think Mitt's answer as to why his sons don't serve in the military was ill-conceived. The correct answer would have been that we have a volunteer military and none of his sons chose to serve the country in that way. Instead, they chose to serve as a doctor, a corporate officer, a real estate developer, etc. Are any of those less essential than soldiers? (In no way to I mean to degrade the high esteem in which we should hold our soldiers.)

By