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Saturday, October 20, 2007
posted by Justin Hart | 7:28 PM | permalink
Kudos to Mike Huckabee who gave an excellent speech and was able to win the local straw poll. Congrats to Mitt for winning the overall straw poll with online savvy.

Couple of thoughts here:
  1. Here's a quick genesis of how things happened from the Romney side of things. Over a week ago the Romney camp caught wind that over 1000 people had already voted in the straw poll. I guess Romney can count better than the other candidates (j/k) and quickly realized that this thing was going to be won online. In short: if 2500 people were attending the straw poll and 1000 people had already voted... anyone who didn't make an online showing would lose. They called up supporters and asked them to email their personal lists about the opportunity. We held the news from our blogs until Thursday night so as not to tip the other candidates (who apparently didn't put 2 and 2 together - again j/k) and the race was off.

  2. 600 attendees actually voted online.... so the 952 votes is misleading. I'm not saying Romney won... but the seeming on-site rout for Huckabee needs a little context.

  3. The big losers as Erick and Politico point out are Fred and Rudy. The former came in behind Romney and the later came in second. Second, that is, in the least acceptable candidate group.

  4. Talking to numerous people at the convention... the flurry of Romney endorsements didn 'tnot go unnoticed. Many people came up to me asking numerous questions about Mitt. At one point a prominent radio host asked me to come over and explain where Mitt stands on stem cell research to another fellow news maker.

  5. Here's a better contextual look at why Huckabee is a great guy... but won't be able to make it happen:


  6. (note: legend got cut off on the graphic. All you need to know is this. Huckabee is the small almost non-existent line at the bottom of the graph.


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3 Comments:


What the heck is Huckabee saying???? If you don’t vote for him, because he is authentic, then Faith as we know it is destroyed???? If that is his rationale for running, then I think Huckabee has a few screws loose!!!

http://www.politico.com/blogs/jonathanmartin/1007/The_Values_Voter_straw_poll.html

Huckabee took a more fiery approach. After talking about protecting freedom and family, Huckabee said: “Faith is also threatened, and let me share with you how. I believe that there are many who will seek our support. But let me say that it’s important that people sing from their hearts, and don’t merely lip-synch the lyrics to our songs. I think it’s important that the language of Zion is a mother tongue, and not a recently acquired second language. It’s important that a person doesn’t have more positions on issues that Elvis had waist sizes.”

By Anonymous Anonymous, at October 20, 2007 11:23 PM  


Thanks for the inside scoop on how this came about. Facinating, but not surprising that Mitt's team would pick up on the early signals of how this would go down and mobilize effectively to meet the challenge.

Charles Mitchell over at Evangelicals for Mitt also has some interesting insight here.

http://www.evangelicalsformitt.org/front_page/you_guys_dont_get_it.php



What I thought most interesting about Charles' input is the fact that people weren't able to vote after mitt's speach because the voting booths were already closed for the night, wereas huckabee spoke early the next day and people were able to vote immediately after. I won't try to predict what the outcome might have been if people had voted after mitt but before huckabee spoke, but the energy present coming away from a good speach is powerfull, and after a night sleeping, people fall back into wait and see mode. And people seemed to realy like MR speach, so likely many would have voted for him that didn't if they were able to immediately following his speach.




posted by Justin Hart | 3:08 PM | permalink

Which of the following candidates for Presidentwould you most likely to vote for?

Mitt Romney159527.62%
Mike Huckabee156527.15%
Ron Paul86514.98%
Fred Thompson5649.77%
Undecided3295.70%
Sam Brownback2975.14%
Duncan Hunter1402.42%
Tom Tancredo1332.30%
Rudy Giuliani1071.85%
John McCain811.40%
Not Voting671.16%
Barack Obama90.16%
Joe Biden50.09%
Hillary Clinton50.09%
John Edwards40.07%
Dennis Kucinich40.07%
Christopher Dodd20.03%
Bill Richardson20.03%
Mike Gravel10.02%
Total5,775100%

Onsite Straw Poll Results

Mike Huckabee48851.26%
Mitt Romney9910.40%
Fred Thompson778.09%
Tom Tancredo656.83%%
Rudy Giuliani606.30%
Duncan Hunter545.67%
John McCain303.15%
Sam Brownback262.73%
Ron Paul252.63%
Undecided111.16%
Not Voting70.74%
Barack Obama50.53%
Christopher Dodd20.21%
Dennis Kucinich20.11%
Joe Biden10.11%
Hillary Clinton00.00%
John Edwards00.00%
Mike Gravel00.00%
Bill Richardson00.00%
Total952100%
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2 Comments:


At EFM, some said that though present, they voted online to avoid the lines.

Was it clear to everyone present that FRC would produce a separate tally for those present verses those who voted online?

If so, why would anyone present vote online. If not, shouldn't this be discussed?


Thanks, TOm



Talk about skewing the vote results!

There are three facts that are being left out that spins the story.

The on site voting polls were closed down after Romney's speech and opened back up after Huckabee's speech the next day. That means those who came to support and listen to Huckabee were able to vote on site. Those who came to listen to and support Romney the day before were not.

There were many more attendees at the event than voted on site. A lot of folks who attended voted online with their laptops and other electronic hand helds. The non-progressive folks waited in line to vote.

The organization that sent out the emails urging people to vote online was the community "Evangelicals for Mitt". Romney's own campaign did not do that, duh he has an 80,000 donor base, if he had solicited online votes the would have blitzed the online voting.




posted by Kyle | 10:49 AM | permalink
Another endorsement for Romney:

DR. JOHN WILLKE, A FOUNDER OF THE PRO-LIFE MOVEMENT NATIONALLY & INTERNATIONALLY, ENDORSES GOV. ROMNEY

Boston, MA – Today, Dr. John Willke, a founder of the Pro Life Movement, endorsed Governor Mitt Romney and his campaign for our nation's highest office. Dr. Willke is a leading voice within the pro-life community and will be an important surrogate for Governor Romney's pro-life and pro-family agenda.

"Unlike other candidates who only speak to the importance of confronting the major social issues of the day, Governor Romney has a record of action in defending life. Every decision he made as Governor was on the side of life. I know he will be the strong pro-life President we need in the White House," said Dr. Willke. "Governor Romney is the only candidate who can lead our pro-life and pro-family conservative movement to victory in 2008."

Welcoming Dr. Willke's announcement, Governor Romney said, "I am proud to have the support of a man who has meant so much to the pro-life movement in our country. He knows how important it is to have someone in Washington who will actively promote pro-life policies. Policies that include more than appointing judges who will follow the law but also opposing taxpayer funded abortion and partial birth abortion. I look forward to working with Dr. Willke and welcome him to Romney for President."

Background On Dr. John Willke:
Dr. John Willke, Often Referred To As The Father Of The Pro-Life Movement, Served For 10 Years As President Of The National Right To Life Committee And Helped Found The Organization. A physician by trade, Dr. Willke serves as President of the Life Issues Institute, Inc., and President of the International Right to Life Federation. Dr. Willke had a daily radio program that was carried on over 300 radio stations for 20 years. His one-minute radio comments, entitled "Life Jewels," were carried on over 750 stations in English and 300 more in Spanish. Dr. Wilkie has written eleven books, is a lecturer and a frequent television and radio show guest. His works have been published in 32 languages, and he and his wife Barbara have lectured in 76 countries.
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posted by Justin Hart | 7:11 AM | permalink

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Friday, October 19, 2007
posted by Justin Hart | 6:35 PM | permalink
Video coming shortly.

Mitt's performance at the FRC Conference was phenomenal. The crowd was jazzed. The speech was spot on and the aftermath is very positive.

But don't take my word for it.

Erick at RedState:
This guy sounds like he's already the nominee. It's like the other candidates were here to sell themselves and Romney has taken the difference approach -- presume he's already been sold to them and show them what they've gotten. It's not a bad approach for him. It works.
Byron at the Corner:
After Romney's speech, a journalist sitting nearby said that it was all very professional. And indeed it was; Romney had a bunch of issues to touch, checked them all, and said goodnight. Very professionally done.
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posted by Justin Hart | 4:08 PM | permalink
Newt is up here and kills as usual. One thing I defiantly agree with: "Americans are sick of Red vs. Blue fighting. They want Red, White and Blue."

He is by far one of the best speakers we have in the conservative movement. His only drawback is that he holds so much baggage right now. Regardless, we can't afford to ignore this man. He has the ideas.

My reaction so far?
  • McCain - Had a very good speech. He is well respected and spoke from personal stories. But the audience knows they just cannot see eye to eye with this guy
  • Thompson - Was very "homey" and "folksy" (which I like) but he just had so little energy about him. People want to be excited about him... but they can't see that excitement in him.
  • Tancredo - Very well received. Locally here he may do well in the straw poll... but the poll is going to be won online. (More on this later)
  • Hunter - Hunter is Hunter. Good speech... but not really well organized. Dark and dreary.
  • Paul - Boy... he's a character. He may win the online poll (knowing the Pauline Nutroots). Nice applause... just an odd ball.
  • Brownbank - gracious. Almost the same stump speech from CPAC. Farewell good fellow.
Great other speeches coming soon. Love being here
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posted by Justin Hart | 2:48 PM | permalink
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posted by Justin Hart | 2:43 PM | permalink

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trueromney.com




posted by Kyle | 2:27 PM | permalink
A few thoughts about the FRC, not actually being there myself:

First, the continued accumulation of prominent social-conservative leaders is impressive. As I said last week, after noting the implicit rejection of Huckabee by Gary Bauer and Tony Perkins:

In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if there was a general consensus among social conservative leaders after the Values Voter Summit next week.
Sounds almost prescient now, don't you think? While I don't have the power to see the future (or any insider knowledge from the campaign), it very much seems to be playing out that way. The list of prominent social conservative leaders who have openly endorsed Romney is growing by the day.

Second, Romney’s speech at the FRC tonight has been getting previewed a little. It’s topic? Families. I think this is a good topic for Romney. His record in Massachusetts is beyond reproach in fighting against re-definition of marriage. The topic also speaks to a broader array of issues than abortion alone does. Marriage and family not only serve as the social basis of society, but in our modern society, serves as the distinguishing economic difference between the poor and the wealthy. Thus, in a social sense, Romney can talk about values and problems like abortion that often stem from poor familial relationships (either between the two parents or between parents and children in the case of minor pregnancies). The topic of families also allows Romney to talk about the best way to lift people out of poverty; not by entitlement programs, but by increasing marriages and decreasing divorces.

Of course highlighting the topic that distinguishes the personal lives of the candidates is not a bad one either.

Third, it is also important to remember that Romney is not just the candidate of choice for social conservative leaders because of his stance on traditional values issues. Last week, the issue that turned off Bauer and Perkins from Huckabee was Huckabee’s statements about Iran. This is a far cry from abortion or gay marriage. Likewise, McCain and Thompson get downgraded because of their stance on free speech in McCain-Feingold(-Thompson?). Romney’s entire platform is what these people are endorsing. They like his stance on Iran. They like his stance on the first amendment. I wouldn’t be surprised if he also got points for his stance on immigration or economic issues.

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posted by Justin Hart | 1:56 PM | permalink

Duncan Hunter, Tom Tancredo, Fred Thompson, and Ron Paul have all spoken. More on this later.

For now... here's a look at the exhibits.

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posted by Justin Hart | 10:55 AM | permalink
Well, almost all of them. Lunch is over and the crowds are starting to come in. Before we start up again I wanted to give a quick not to our fellow blogging comrades in the order I ran into them today:
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posted by Justin Hart | 10:52 AM | permalink

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posted by Justin Hart | 9:49 AM | permalink
This flier is making its way around the FRC conference.

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Justin, has anyone been looking into the bundling of chinese busboys for Hillary. Do you think that there is a case of bif donors giving money through multiple people. I recall a Bush supporter from Ohio getting into trouble for doing the same thing.

By Anonymous Anonymous, at October 19, 2007 10:53 AM  



posted by Justin Hart | 8:20 AM | permalink
Update: No endorsement from Brownback.

First up: Mr. John "Let the chips fall where the may" McCain. McCain is earnest. Earnest but wrong. And that is his main problem. He just can't quite get it right as far as conservatives go. The crowd is attentive but suspicious in my view. Everyone here has a great respect for this American Hero... they just don't line up, eye to eye.

One item of note here. Fred has gone negative. In a flier handed out at the entrance Fred attacks Rudy and Romney for their pro-life credentials.



UPDATE: here's another flier make the rounds:



Quick layout at the Hilton:

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