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Wednesday, January 16, 2008
posted by Publicola | 11:23 AM | permalink
Here's some thoughtful analysis about what happened in Michigan. First, the guys at Powerline:


First, the pervasive commentary over the last week to the effect that Michigan was do-or-die for Romney was, I think, nonsense. Even if Romney had lost narrowly to McCain in Michigan, which is not a winner-take-all state, he still would have been the overall leader in delegate count and would have received more votes from Republicans than anyone else so far.

The next event, in South Carolina, will most likely be won by neither Romney nor McCain. The fact is that the Republican race is wide open and could well result in a open convention. The media should stop trying to pressure candidates to drop out every time they don't win a primary, and Republicans should value a candidate like Romney who is willing and able to compete not just here and there, but effectively across the country.


Second, Ed Morrissey over at Captain's Quarters:

In looking at the exit polling at CNN, the surprise is in how broad Romney's victory was. He won most of the demographics in the exit polling, with McCain only winning a handful. McCain won among those who back a path-to-citizenship policy for immigration, but only by 5 points over Romney. That suggests that immigration was not as big an issue for Michigan Republicans despite a bad economy and job competition. Romney won pluralities among both conservatives and liberals, with McCain winning among moderates. Strangely, McCain won pluralities among those who disapprove and strongly disapprove of the Iraq war. Mitt handily won among those who support it, even though McCain has been one of its strongest advocates.

Update: HotAir's Bryan says what we're all thinking:
Two primary wins, two seconds. No one else has been as broadly competitive so far. He has the most delegates and the most money in the bank, and he’s back to campaigning in South Carolina for Saturday’s primary. He’s in a statistical tie for second there. With four primary contests and three different winners, there isn’t a solid front-funner in the GOP but there is a front-runner for now, and that’s Mitt Romney.

Am I the only one breathing a sigh of relief that the front-runner coming out of Michigan isn’t McCain or Huckabee?

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posted by Publicola | 12:06 AM | permalink
Is this really a surprise?

Despite urging from some activists like Daily Kos' Markos Moulitsas that Michigan Democrats vote for Mitt Romney over John McCain, CNN exit polling indicates the Arizona Republican won the liberal vote.

McCain captured 41 percent of Democrats who voted in the Republican primary, 10 points more than Romney. Mike Huckabee meanwhile, only captured 14 percent of Democrats.

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The link is bad, or the article was moved. In any case, you can find the article here.

By Anonymous Anonymous, at January 16, 2008 11:46 AM  



Tuesday, January 15, 2008
posted by Publicola | 7:39 PM | permalink
All I'm seeing around the blogosphere is rumor and conjecture, but the mood feels different than the last two times around. Of course, it doesn't seem as though anyone wants to give Romney credit, if it is indeed a win here. From my vantage point, the media seem somewhat annoyed that Romney is still competing. They wanted to kill his campaign after Iowa, even more after New Hampshire and want to discount Michigan as some sort of homefield advantage. Don't believe the home field advantage hype. Romney hasn't lived in Michigan in years and his father was the governor back in the 60's (Quick, name all the governors you know from the 60's).

If Romney wins tonight, it will be because of message.

Don't forget it.

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I thought it was a good sign that the Fox guys were smiling.




posted by Publicola | 7:25 PM | permalink
Along with Jason's eye witness reports from the field, we want to hear from you if you are in Michigan, explaining why you voted for Mitt or what is happening on the ground. We will post your thoughts here. Email us at info@mymanmitt.com.

Go Romney in Michigan!

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Monday, January 14, 2008
posted by Publicola | 6:49 PM | permalink
Along with Jason's eye witness reports from the field, we want to hear from you if you are in Michigan, explaining why you voted for Mitt or what is happening on the ground. We will post your thoughts here. Email us at info@mymanmitt.com.

Go Romney in Michigan!

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I live in Michigan, and I have been calling republicans to get out the vote for Mitt. I have not yet talked to a McCain supporter, but most people I talk to are either already Romney supporters or undecided but leaning Romney. Cross your fingers, and go Mitt! Most people I talk to view him as deeply committed to Michigan and love that he is from here.



I know this is in favor of Michigan, but just to keep your hopes up about Nevada...I was home tonight and a pollster called for my mom (the millionth one this week). Said she was from the Romney campain, so I didn't hang up. Mom took the call and all was well...she told the lady Romney had her vote, along with the vote of her son who answered the phone. She was ecstatic.

Go Romney!



You poor people. What connection does Mitt have to Michigan? Hello, he is in Mass. morons. And has another residency in Utah. Ohhhh, he was born in Michigan back in 1947. Oh, yes, I see now....
You know what, I hope he does win. I used to believe in liberty, but now I believe in corporatism. Most Americans are too proud for no reason, and feel privelaged when you're really overpaid third world laborors. Bring on the remainder of the globalist movement! Put these americans in reality check.

By Anonymous Anonymous, at January 15, 2008 2:50 PM  



Saturday, January 12, 2008
posted by Publicola | 11:45 AM | permalink
Romney overwhelmingly wins Ottawa County, MI straw poll:
Ottawa County is generally considered one of the most Republican counties in the state.

Geraldine Vruggink, a Romney supporter from Hudsonville, said she is attracted to his practical and business experience and to his "high morals." If Romney is elected, people won't have to worry about what is going on at the White House, she said.

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Like elected officials accepting bribes. (Huckster)

By Anonymous Joe Mama, at January 12, 2008 12:18 PM  



Friday, January 11, 2008
posted by Publicola | 10:22 AM | permalink
John Nevin penned an op/ed for the Detroit Free Press yesterday. In that op/ed he argued that Mitt Romney is the best candidate for the Michigan and the Great Lakes:
Mitt Romney grew up in that tradition and has a firsthand appreciation of how important the Great Lakes are to Michigan's high quality of life. Romney knows that Michigan's ecology and economy depend on healthy Great Lakes and clean water that is safe for drinking, beaches that are safe for swimming, and fish that are safe for eating.


We go ahold of Mr. Nevin and asked him a few follow-up questions.

MMM: What part of Michigan are you from?

JN: I am from Holt, a suburb of Lansing, right near Michigan State University.

MMM: What is your occupation?

JN: I am a policy adviser to a binational group that provides advice to governments regarding water quality and water quantity issues. Previously, I wrote speeches and provided communications advice to Governor John Engler for 12 years.

MMM: How would you describe your political leanings?

JN: My political leanings are definitely conservative but with a pragmatic, common sense approach that emphasizes results more than ideology. I am strongly pro-life and wouldn’t support a candidate who wasn’t.

MMM: Why endorse Mitt Romney?

JN: I’ve endorsed Mitt Romney for many reasons. He’s an experienced executive with a track record of success who understands how to manage change and to transform complex organizations. Second, just looking at his family, you know right away that he is an incredibly strong and compassionate leader. He doesn’t need the presidency. The presidency needs him.

MMM: You say in your Op/Ed that Mitt Romney will be best for Michigan and the Great Lakes. Why?

JN: Mitt would be best for the Great Lakes because I know he wouldn’t tolerate the lack of responsibility and accountability for current programs. He’s the only candidate who would have the ability to slash the bureaucracy, reorganize and focus on the key threats to the lakes. The bottom line is that Mitt is all about results and that’s the kind of leadership we need. And of course, it helps that he is from Michigan and has a true understanding and appreciation for how important the lakes are to our state, our economy and our culture.

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Awesome slogan, "Mitt Romney doesn't need the presidency, the presidency needs him!"

By Anonymous Anonymous, at January 11, 2008 10:49 AM  


I thought the exact same thing. That would be great on a Romney ad.




Thursday, September 6, 2007
posted by Justin Hart | 7:32 PM | permalink
A new poll by ARG shows a huge leap for Romney in Michigan.
Romney had the support of 39% of those surveyed, compared with 13% for former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, 12% for former U.S. Sen. Fred Thompson of Tennessee and 9% for Sen. John McCain of Arizona. The poll was taken Saturday through Tuesday and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

The numbers are a little bit crazy but closely shadow Romney's margins in New Hampshire and Iowa almost overnight. While questions remain the trend is undeniable:
Romney's margin was so huge that some questioned the results.

Charlie Cook, who runs the Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan, Washington, D.C.-based newsletter analyzing elections and campaigns, said it appears too high to be true. But, he added, the ARG result, along with other polls, give him little reason to doubt that Romney, a former Massachusetts governor, "is the front-runner at this point in Michigan."

"The trend is really clear," said Mark Blumenthal, editor of Pollster.com, a nonpartisan Web site that aggregates and charts polling data. He, too, questioned the strength of ARG's result, but said it's easy to see Romney's support is growing in the state. Other polls, including one conducted in January for the Free Press and WDIV-TV Local 4 television, had shown Giuliani with a clear lead in Michigan.

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Yeah!!

Look, Mitt Romney is the cream - and the cream always rises to the top.




Wednesday, September 5, 2007
posted by Publicola | 3:17 PM | permalink
In spite of the evidence that Jason posted of Brownback's masses, it is Romney that leads in Michagan according to a new ARG poll:

39% Romney
13% Giuliani
12% F Thompson
9% McCain
4% Huckabee

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Another poll showing Romney in the lead in Michigan. He is showing some great strength there, but don't be surprised if the next Michigan poll has it a lot closer. This poll was done over Labor Day weekend. Most polls done over any weekend can be a bit screwy and one over a holiday weekend could be even more messed up. And we are dealing with ARG which isn't the most accurate polling firm anyway.




Monday, April 9, 2007
posted by Justin Hart | 10:13 AM | permalink
1. IA – 17%, 3rd place behind McCain at just 21% now.
2. NH – 25% tied for 1st with McCain
3. SC –14%, moving up to third, Rudy at first with 26%
4. MI – 21%, 2nd

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Friday, March 23, 2007
posted by Justin Hart | 10:21 AM | permalink
This is a fun endeavor! I love to watch the ebb and flow of picking team players (or rather players picking a team).

Both Romney and McCain are making nailing down some great endorsements. The ground game is really taking shape. Since our last update two weeks ago here are some highlighted endorsements:

Congressional Endorsements:
  • McCain picks up congressional endorsements from Richard Burr (Rep - NC), Todd Platts (Rep - PA)
  • Rudy picks up nods from Frank LoBiondo (Rep-NJ), Devin Nunes (Rep-CA), Jerry Lewis (Rep-CA) and Senator Vitter (LA)
State Specific Highlights
  • McCain picks up a solid Florida team with a gambit of State Reps. He and Romney run about 10 elected officials each. Rudy has none in his camp. But Romney has a powerful finance team edge - most recently enhanced by getting H. Wayne Huizenga
  • Romney named his Iowa team with about 7 elected officials. McCain has yet to register any force in Iowa except for a paid of activists.
  • South Carolnia is a real battle. Even beyond the dueling Senators Romney and McCain are grabbing up endorsements. McCain recently unveiled a very solid finance team
  • Romney followed suit with a large finance crowd from Oregon and California
  • Despite his opponents trimming away nods in Michigan, Romney still owns the state elected officials: Romney: 47; McCain: 19; Rudy: 2
  • Phil Graham came out for McCain as did former NC Governor Jim Martin. Romney picked up current RI Governor Don Carcieri while Rudy picked up former MD Gov. Bob Ehrlich
Of course... the story still remains! Where is Rudy's ground game?

Bottom line is this: These three are going to have the cash at the end of Q1 but McCain and Romney have the strategy and legwork in place to make a showing. Rudy is just plain absent or silent?!

Regardless... here are your charts:

The following chart includes federal, state or local current or former elected officials
2008 endorsements, Mitt Romney, John McCain, Rudy Giuliani on endorsements

The following chart includes state specific leaders, including former or current local officials, party officials, and state activists.
2008 endorsements, Mitt Romney, John McCain, Rudy Giuliani on endorsements


The following chart includes members of the U.S. House of Representatives and Senate
2008 endorsements, Mitt Romney, John McCain, Rudy Giuliani on endorsements


The following chart includes all previous categories including finance-specific endorsements, other activists, and RNC members.
2008 endorsements, Mitt Romney, John McCain, Rudy Giuliani on endorsements

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Monday, March 5, 2007
posted by Justin Hart | 7:04 PM | permalink
When John McCain announced the Michigan leaders who were backing his campaign it seemed like a decent shot across Mitt's bow taking steam out of his home state.

No longer.

Today, Governor Romney introduced the supporters for his Michigan team. I have mixed feeling about the annoucement. Don't get me wrong. The team is solid. It just means I have A LOT to do on the endorsement database.

The team includes.

- 44 Current and Former County GOP Chairs
- 41 Current and Former GOP State Committee Members
- 7 Current and Former GOP Congressional District Chairs

Michigan Republican County Chairs Endorsing Governor Romney:

Rita Hale, Alger County
Tony Garofalo, Allegan County
Ed Boettcher, Antrim County
Hubert Fisk, Arenac County
John Drennan, Baraga County
Bill LaBrae, Cass County
Greg Rotter, Cheboygan County
Anthony Stackpoole, Chippewa County
Kim Emmons, Clare County
Dr. Tim Tarry, Eaton County
Jack Waldvogel, Emmet County
Darlene Conner, Gladwin County
Geraldine Burt, Gogebic County
Eric St. Onge, Gratiot County
Neil Brady, Hillsdale County
Robert Hogan, Huron County
Norm Shinkle, Ingham County
Adam Hume, Iosco County
Jon Williams, Jackson County
Allan Filip, Livingston County
Jonathon Brown, Luce County
Jim Carabelli, Macomb County
Jackie Champlin, Montcalm County
Dan Marcrum, Montmorency County
Dennis Cowan, Oakland County
Dennis Sisco, Ogemaw County
Joel Butler, Otsego County
Jon DeWitte, Ottawa County
Jeffrey Lamb, Presque Isle County
Sam Burwell, Shiawassee County
Karry Bland, St. Clair County
Wes Dilworth, former Charlevoix Chair
Gail Nugent, former Benzie Chair
Carl Schwind, former Clare Chair
Tom Englund, former Delta Chair
Don Birgel, former Gladwin Chair
Libby Child, former Kent Chair
Charles Mulholland, former Montcalm Chair
Paul Welday, former Oakland Chair
Ken Shapley, former Saginaw Chair
David Kredell, former Sanilac Chair
Anna Kabot, former Tuscola Chair
Micki McClelland, former Mecosta Chair

Michigan Republican State Committee Members Endorsing Governor Romney:

Anthony Stackpoole, 1st CD
Robert Hogan, 10th CD
Norm Shinkle, 8th CD
Allan Filip, 8th CD
Gerry Mason, 10th CD
Kyle Olson, 2nd CD
Joan Runnels, 2nd CD
Florence Connolly, 4th CD
Scott Haines, 4th CD
Micki McClelland, 4th CD
Amy Carl, 5th CD
Jean Coleman, 6th CD
Mike Troutman, 7th CD (former Chair)
Don Vickers, 8th CD
Linda Lee Williams, 8th CD
Terri Kowall, 10th CD
Paul Viar, 10th CD
Eileen Kowall, 11th CD
Judy Bucholtz, 12th CD
Linda Solterisch, 13th CD
Joseph Tate, 13th CD
Scott Saionz, 14th CD
Carl Meyers, 15th CD
Bill Runco, 15th CD
Joel Westrom, 1st District Chairman
Carolyn Curtin, 4th District Chairwoman
Gerry Hildenbrand, 6th District Chairman
Dennis Buchholtz, 12th District Chairman
Tom Newman, former 6th District Chair
Bob Law, former 11th District Chair
Michael Bell, former State Committee
Jennifer Schultz, former State Committee
Margaret Stanley, former State committee
Lori (Packer) Wortz, former State Committee
Rosalie Skiwers, former State Committee
Marianne Packer, former State Committee
Jon Caron, former State Committee
Jim Miller, former State Committee
Marti Miller, former State Committee
Melvin Byrd, former State Committee
Linda Harmon, former State Committee

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Tuesday, February 20, 2007
posted by Ben Wren | 9:00 AM | permalink

More Details from Fox News!
Republican Mitt Romney, flush with cash from early fundraising, this week will air his first presidential campaign ad to introduce himself to voters in several early voting states. The 60-second spot describes the former Massachusetts governor as a "business legend" who "rescued the Olympics" and "turned around a Democratic state."

Romney himself adds: "This is not a time for more talk and dithering in Washington. It's a time for action."
MORE:
The ad is set to air starting Wednesday in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Michigan and Florida.

It is the first ad by a top-tier contender in a campaign experts believe will cost more than $1 billion by the time it ends in November 2008.
AND:
Madden refused to reveal the cost or scope of the ad buy, except to say both the full ad and an abridged, 30-second version will air in "select markets" in the five states.

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