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Wednesday, January 23, 2008
posted by Justin Hart | 9:52 AM | permalink
Mitt's Big Nevada Victory and a special invitation to Fredheads.



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1 Comments:


Thank God the Mittcast is back!!

By Anonymous Nick from NC, at January 23, 2008 11:33 AM  



Saturday, January 19, 2008
posted by Kyle | 12:59 AM | permalink
Nevada reader Stephanie had this to say:
I went to a Mitt Meeting this morning here in Elko, and it was very positive! It was only announced late yesterday that he was coming, but there were at least 200 people in attendance (along with nasty Glen Johnson and his laptop - I had to restrain myself). Mitt opened by talking about local "icons" dear to the residents here - the gold mines, and the Basque restaurants. He gave kind of a short version of his stump speech. While he worked through the crowd shaking hands, a former volunteer from the SLC Olympics came forward with her Olympic jacket. Mitt jumped back on stage, got the mic working again, and talked about the volunteers at the Olympics, then signed the jacket. Despite his aide following close behind him, reminding him of their tight schedule (next stop, Reno), Mitt was kind and generous enough to shake hands, sign papers, and take pictures with everyone who wanted to (including my 5 year old daughter). I have attended 2 of these meetings, and both times I was really impressed with Mitt's generosity in taking the time to talk to people and shake hands. It really makes a difference.

The write-up in the afternoon paper was excellent here. There were actually 2 articles on Mitt's visit, plus the Elko Free Press' endorsement of Mitt, and Ann Coulter's excellent editorial supporting Mitt, "The Elephant in the Room."

The GOP rep at the meeting explained the Caucus procedure to us, assured us it wouldn't take longer than an hour, and that voting was through secret ballot, not through a raise of hands (as is the Dems' process). I think it reinforced most people's commitment to caucus tomorrow, and allayed some fears that the process would drag on all morning. He said we could stick around after the voting to hear the results, and that results for all of Nevada should be in by 1:00pm PST.

I finally get to cast a vote for our man Mitt!

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1 Comments:


Now, I respect the press in terms of being professional and recognizing they do an important and sometimes difficult job. That said, it wouldn't hurt my feelings to see our opinion about 'ol Glen Johnson expressed to him regularly at events like this. At least he'll know where we stand. Nothing nasty, just firm opinions about his lack of professionalism.




Friday, January 18, 2008
posted by Kyle | 5:14 PM | permalink
I talked to a contact in Reno to get a sense of what’s going on. He said that volunteers are there from all over the Western U.S. (ID, UT, AZ, CA) There are over 100 from California alone. Some volunteers have been working for months to identify potential voters and Romney supporters. They are going door to door and have a call bank set up to contact these voters. It really is an organized effort going on. I asked whether voters seem to grasp the caucus system. He said it’s new to them, but that Romney voters have done their homework and are ready. He said the biggest issue for voters has been illegal immigration.

He said that Governor Romney has been all over Nevada today, from Henderson (southern Nevada) to Elko (NE Nevada) to Reno (NW Nevada). In Reno, the Governor was greeted by an overflow crowd of more than 300. He said the atmosphere was electrifying. He said there were several Nevada Republican leaders there who spoke along with Romney, including Nevada Republican Leader State Assemblywoman Heidi Gansert, who endorsed Romney just a few days ago.

Most of all he said that there in Nevada the campaign is feeling really good.

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2 Comments:


That's what I'm talking about Nevada!

I was amazed at the Iowa caucus how just having an organized presence made a huge difference in Mitt's favor. In my precinct I was precinct captain and having stickers and respectable openly mitt supporters swayed a lot of swing voters. Remember not to disrespect anyone else for not voting your guy. They have a right to vote for anyone they want to vote for. But do be organized and confident.

In my Iowa precinct Mitt got more than double the votes of the next person in line Huckabee. In the next precinct over there wasn't an organized positive Mitt presence and Huckster tied Mitt. A lot of people decide who they're voting AT the caucus. So be there, be classy, and be openly supportive of Mitt. You'll do better than we did overall in Iowa. Hopefully you'll blow everyone else out of the water even more than Wyoming.



I'm glad that Mitt is coming out and emphasizing his 50 state campaign...I'm thinking a strong presence in the west, especially California, might give him the nomination.

Also, with a huge win in NV, a third in SC won't be too bad (though many pundits will then call him "unelectable" because he "can't win in the south"...though the south will NOT vote for Clinton or Obama so whoever the nominee is won't have to worry about the south). It's the west that we have to try and win over (swing states like New Mexico, Nevada, etc.).

When the press brings up his 3rd in SC, he needs to hammer that home, "I won't give up on, or ignore, a single job, a single state, or a single vote. They're all important."




posted by Kyle | 4:36 PM | permalink
Nevada Reader Ronald let's us know what's going on in Las Vegas:

On the ground here in Vegas. Detailed my thoughts on a Rally last night on my blog at redstate. There is a ground swell here and I feel like were going to trounce the field here tomorrow. Hopefully as well as Wyoming did. There are 34 delegates on the line and most are for Mitt! My phone is ringing quite a bit. McCain, Romney and even Hillary! Just spoke with Deborah Romney who was verifying my support for the Caucus. Told her my wife and I are 100% guaranteed to caucus for Mitt. Heard Duncan Hunter ad on Talk Radio This morning (apparently one time ad). Ron Paul's guys leafleted the Romney supporters cars at the Rally last night. (Nice Try, but none of us are leaving Romney.) Mitt is going on Leno tonight to reach both states and California. The local talk radio station has been replaying their interview with Mitt every hour all day including Rush, Hannity and Levin. Nice earned media coverage. (Thanks KXNT) They just added McCain on Immigration to the rotation too, but McCain waffling on immigration helps Mitt more than McCain.

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posted by Kyle | 3:26 PM | permalink
We have no one in the field this week, so we especially need your help. Email us your take on what's happening on the ground in Nevada or South Carolina. Tell us what's going on with getting the vote out and your first hand accounts of the latest happenings in those two states. We will post your thoughts here. Email us at info@mymanmitt.com.

Go Romney!

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I met Mitt last night at a meet-and-greet in Las Vegas. He had such an awe-inspiring presence, and if the reaction by the crowd was any way to guage it, he's got the winning stance on the illegal immigration issue. You can tell he pays attention to the people as well; he made a remark about my Salt Lake 2002 hat during his speech, and when I shook his hand outside afterward, he said "There's the guy!". Simply amazing. He's got Nevada.




posted by Kyle | 12:40 PM | permalink
I was watching the Today Show this morning listening to the reports and Tim Russert (who I lose more respect for the more he speaks because he is the king of wrong-headed conventional wisdom) was trying to attribute Romney's Nevada lead to Mormon voters. Look, I don't doubt that there are several voters who vote for Romney that are Mormons, but this isn't a Mike Huckabee situation for two reasons.

First, Russert's assertion ignores what we have learned so far from the race. Romney has been winning across the spectrum of Republican voters. There is a reason that Romney has the most votes of any candidate in the race. Romney's appeal comes not from identity, but from message and personal qualities. If Romney was reliant on Mormon voters to win in any other state, he would have lost badly. On the contrary, Romney has been the only consistently appealing and performing candidate in the race. Thus, to attribute Romney's appeal in Nevada to the population of Mormons ignores what has happened so far in the race.

Second, Mormons, whoever they vote for, are an insufficient demographic in any state (except Utah and maybe Idaho) by which to win a state's primary, much less Nevada. The LDS website says that there are 169,714 members in Nevada. The Census Bureau estimates Nevada's population as 2,495,529. That means that even in a state with a significant LDS population, Mormons are only 6.8% of the state's population. Assuming that Mormons vote in equal proportions as other citizens (and there's no reason to assume otherwise), even getting all of the Mormon vote puts you in at Ron Paul territory. You don't even break double digits. Thus, Romney's more than thirty percent support cannot be attributed to Mormons voting in Nevada. To match Romney's support, Mormons would need to be 5 times more of the voting electorate than they constitute of the overall population.

Russert's assertion that Nevada would vote for Romney because of Mormons ignores both the race as it has developed so far and the demographics of Nevada. It is idiotic to continue to spout such falsities. But that seems to be what Russert does so well.

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5 Comments:


Kyle,
Not only are you right, but the Church's numbers reflect all members aged 8 and up, active and lapsed. That number also includes Harry Reid, whom I doubt intends to caucus for Mitt!!

Keep challenging erroneous "analysis"!

By Anonymous Anonymous, at January 18, 2008 1:13 PM  


My take on Russert's comment is not that he was saying the POPULATION of Mormons in Nevada explains Romney's big lead there, but that the INFLUENCE of Mormons in a State founded by them, and with citizens who are familiar with them (and who elected Harry Reid).

Still, I wish he'd mentioned that Huckabee in Iowa enjoyed the benefit that 60% of the turnout reported they were evangelicals, because in that case the POPULATION and the INFLUENCE gave him a powerful edge.

To put it more kindly, Russert could be saying that most Nevadans have gone to school with or worked with Mormons, so the stereotypes that Romney faced in Iowa were greater because many Iowans have never known a Mormon.

Russert is one of the better reporters, but no reporter or candidate is perfect. If I remember correctly, it was he who didn't let Clinton slide by the driver's license for immigrants point in the Democratic debate. Prior to that, her "inevitable nomination" was all the media could talk about.



Russert may be one of the best in the MSM, but he is still MSM: cluelessness is thy middle name...



Leave it to the MSM to let those pesky little things called 'facts' get in the way of 'objectivity'. I'm LDS; Romney being Mormon appeals to me, but what's MORE appealing is that he views the issues the same way I do and has the same ideas I do about how to fix them.

Harry Reid is Mormon too...and I wouldn't be caught dead voting for that crapsack.



Below is the only mention of the GOP caucus in Nevada by CNN this morning and writes Romney's vote off as a "Mormon Vote". Incredibly inaccurate and once again showing the media's reluctance to give Romney any repect he deserves.

CNN article:

Nevada Republicans will also hold caucuses Saturday, and Romney is campaigning hard there, while the other Republican candidates have kept their focus on South Carolina. Even though the Republican party cut in half the number of delegates the state party can send to the national convention as punishment for moving its caucuses to Saturday, Nevada has more delegates at stake than South Carolina.

In a presidential race that's increasingly coming down to who has the most delegates, a win could help Romney, who is expected to benefit from Nevada's large Mormon population.

By Anonymous Anonymous, at January 19, 2008 10:30 AM  



Thursday, January 17, 2008
posted by Kyle | 8:17 PM | permalink
Joining the Las Vegas Review Journal, the Reno Gazette Journal says that Romney is the best candidate:
The best candidate — and the one who would give the party its strongest chance in the fall — is former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney.

Republicans need a candidate who represents conservative values, builds bipartisan support and signals change for a restless electorate.

Romney is that candidate.

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posted by Kyle | 4:37 PM | permalink
The actual results won't be released until tomorrow, but the Las Vegas Review Journal is leaking the leaders of the latest Mason-Dixon poll.

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5 Comments:


The media won't look at this win esotericly as a win for Mitt and racking up more delegates. They'll second guess why he spent time in a state he was expected to win and give up on SC. I wish I was seeing a good uptick in the polls for Mitt in SC. Why this is disturbing is that the people in SC still support McCain and Huck despite all the stuff coming out against both .I'm keeping my fingers crossed anyway that when folks go to the polls they'll wind up supporting the real republican. I'm also sickened that Tom Colburn endorsed McCain.If he really wanted reform in Wash. he should have gone to Mitt. Oh well at least Mitt has Ross Perot.Huck is ticking a lot of people off in SC pandering to the religious vote and anti-illegals.The guy is too unstable to be Prez.



Brit Hume was positively NASTY about Romney and Nevada tonight. It was right after the segment about the Dems in Nevada.

He said Romney will win, Romney is the only one running and "no Doubt he will CLAIM another Gold Medal"

I was shocked.



I too was hoping to see Romney polling higher in SC. He still might do well (competitive second or a miracle – he has good organization and likely some faithful supporters), but a 10-15% showing in 4th place will result in joyful condemnations by the media.
I think it would be interesting to see Romney return to SC Friday afternoon and evening because Nevada is pretty well sealed up, but I do not expect this.

One thing that could have happened if Romney fought in SC is that he could have lost to a group of very religious but not overly political folks who voted for Huck, but he could have knocked down McCain enough that Huck won. Without Romney, McCain beats Huck, and Huck gets little bounce going into Florida.

Then in Florida McCain and Giuliani pull from similar pools of voters and hopefully Huck’s “very religious but not overly political folks” become disillusioned (remember, Huckabee was nowhere 4-5 weeks before Iowa even though he was just as much a seemingly nice Baptist minister). This leaves Romney competitive with McCain and Giuliani taking 1/3 to ¼ of their pool, but standing alone among conservative and very conservative folks to win.

This all reminds me of the game Risk. 5-6 generals march around the world trying to secure territories. You want to win, but it is impossible to do so by defeating everyone else all at once. You must count on others fighting each other so you can then go after the winner one on one while you are stronger and they are either stronger (or better yet injured).
Romney was fighting everyone else all at once in Iowa and New Hampshire. It was clear that McCain and Huckabee ganged up on him. It seems unlikely that both McCain and Huckabee will emerge from South Carolina strong (and while I do not expect Thomson to win, I think he will soften up both of them).
Of course there is much Risk and no guarantee that all goes according to plan.
Thanks, TOm



Lizzy, I'm not shocked. The entire MSM is anti-Romney,even Fox. I thought Carl Cameron was going to cry in Micigan the other day when Mitt won. Mort Kondrake is very pro-McCain not surprising since he's been a long time lib..Fred barnes is a Weekly Standard neo-con type who loves McCain also. I'm also tired of hearing the electibility issue. What's gained to sell your soul just to win an election. Thats' what the dems do. They vote for the (D) next to the name regardless.There's a lot of feeling going around that if MCain is the nominee people will sit out or vote for the dem. If Dem policies are going to ruin this country I don't want GOP fingerprints on it. The MSM are all in a collective pant over McCain winning SC.If Mitt can't win there even though I'm hoping for a surprise,I hope Huck pulls it out to knock McCain out of possible.



The MSM were talking about Mitt's probable win in NV and chalking it up to "the high percentage of Mormons that live there...." I just get so tired of it.......




posted by Kyle | 11:03 AM | permalink
The Las Vegas Review Journal endorsed Mitt Romney today:
Republicans haven't had much national electoral success of late, and for that they have only themselves to blame. In the 14 years since the Gingrich revolution, too many Republicans have embraced the beltway culture and abandoned the very principles upon which their success with voters depended -- smaller government, low taxes, free markets and personal liberty.

Nevada Republicans on Saturday should examine their choices through precisely such a filter. Each GOP candidate can make -- and has made -- a reasonable case that he's best suited to ensure the party again embraces the ideas and concepts that made this nation a beacon of freedom and economic opportunity. But in our opinion, the viable candidate most likely to lead Republicans in such a direction is Mitt Romney, the former governor of Massachusetts.

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1 Comments:


Mitt, I think, needs to hit his competitors on cherry-picking. NO ONE is campaigning actively in SC and NV...nobody! (maybe Ron Paul, but you get the picture)

Why can't the other candidates do this? Are they incapable? Don't care? The unfortunate thing is the media is already drumming up a "NV was unimportant, SC was the real jewel to be won and if you're a Republican and can't win in the south, you're in trouble."

Mitt should turn the tables and say, "if you can't campaign successfully in more than one state at a time, you're in trouble."




Wednesday, January 16, 2008
posted by Kyle | 11:13 AM | permalink
ARG has a new Nevada Poll out:

Romney 28
McCain 21
Thompson 13
Giuliani 11
Paul 9
Huckabee 8

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4 Comments:


Is it just me, or are the ARG polls wacked out? It seems every time I see them compared to other polls, the ARG poll is the outlier. Don't get me wrong, I'll take the result, but I am not sure how reliable it is. Has the ARG ever consistently predicted any race?

Also, did pollsters just stop polling republicans in Nevada? This is the first poll I have seen in like a month on the Republican side!



The story in that poll is the nearly reciprocal movement between Huckabee and McCain. Huckabee polled at 23% last month while McCain garnered only 7%.

Two possible explanations:

1) Republicans outside of the traditional evangelical stronghold states have done their due diligence on Huckabee and reached a reasonable informed conclusion. I have said before that Huck is like a box of glazed doughnuts. Eat one and you are hungry for more, but eat more and you start getting sick, and sicker and sicker the more you eat.

2) McCain is still riding the bump from NH as Republicans started looking for a familiar, somewhat consistent face to nominate and came home to John McCain thinking he was the only viable option come November. I believe Mitt's very strong win in Michigan may send a clear signal to those voters that they don't have to settle for McCain.

Either way, Romney maintains his 28%, and it would appear this time that he is less susceptible to a McCain or Huckabee surge. Thompson won't surge enough to overcome him as any Thompson bump will come largely post S.C. (if at all).

Assuming this poll is correct, and without analyzing the internals, it appears Mitt is in a solid position for NV.



When the NV voters realize that the other candidates have once again written their primary off (ala Wyoming) and that Mitt WILL NOT write off their votes and their state, he'll win in a LANDSLIDE...especially building off of his MI momentum.

I don't know about the polls, but I think with Mitt's organization, advertising capability, and the fact he'll actually pay attention to NV (unlike the other cherry-pickers), he'll kill in the caucuses there.



I posted on another blog, if NV might effect SC? They are on the same day, however NV's caucus will start at 9am that means results might come out on the east coast by mid-afternoon. If Romney wins strong in NV, it could help in SC. Granted the fact that vote day is on a Saturday will cause most votes to be cast earlier; without the after work effect.
Still word on Saturday afternoon that Romney wins in NV might help his numbers a little.

I agree that Romney, who is going to NV on Thursday will help with the NV ego which has felt overlooked.

By Anonymous Anonymous, at January 16, 2008 4:49 PM  



Friday, August 17, 2007
posted by Kyle | 4:30 PM | permalink
"In the latest survey by the Reno Gazette-Journal, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney gained 24 points to capture the lead from former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani," reports KRNV-TV out of Reno. Here are the results:
Republicans:
Romney 28 (+24 vs. 3/12 poll)
Thompson 18 (n/a)
Giuliani 18 (-20)
McCain 8 (-10)
Gingrich 4 (-9)
Huckabee 2 (n/a)

That makes 3 out of the first 6 states that Romney has a lead in right now (Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada. The other three are South Carolina, Florida, and Wyoming). No word of any polls out in Wyoming, but Romney has made steady progress in both South Carolina (within 5% of the lead) and Florida (+2 in the last two Rasmussen polls).

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2 Comments:


Don't forget about Michigan! They're thinking about pushing their primary up to Jan. 29 (the same day as Florida's). If they do, I expect that to be another big win for Mitt.



Somebody forgot to tell the folks in Nevada the results of Ames Straw Poll aren't important.

By Anonymous GeorgiaMom, at August 17, 2007 7:20 PM  



Thursday, June 21, 2007
posted by Kyle | 10:12 AM | permalink
Via Jonathan Martin at the Politico:

Per ARG:

Romney: 23
Giuliani: 21
McCain: 16
F. Thompson: 16
Undecided: 15

Not to get too excited or anything, but that makes 5 states (Iowa, New Hampshire, Michigan, Nevada, and Utah) where Romney is leading.

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