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Monday, January 21, 2008

National Polls moving?

posted by Publicola | 2:24 PM | permalink

Two new national polls have Romney in second place. The more surpising one is ARG (what did you expect, it's ARG), which has Romney within the margin of error (+/- 4%) of the lead:

Giuliani 25 (+1)
Romney 21 (+6)
Thompson 17 (+1)
McCain 12 (-2)
Huckabee 6 (nc)
Paul 4 (+2)
Undecided 12 (-5)

The other one, Cook/RT Strategies, shows Romney tied at second:

Giuliani 29 (+2 vs. last poll Sept 13-16)
Romney 12 (+4)
McCain 12 (-3)
Thompson 12 (-6)
Huckabee 8 (+4)
Paul 6 (+3)
Undecided 16 (-1)

Labels: Polls

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	1 Comments: He's also in second in yesterday's (16) and today's (17) Rasmussen national polls, though RCP hasn't factored either into their average as yet. By bigmo, at November 14, 2007 2:58 PM Post a Comment

Tuesday, November 13, 2007

Geraghty: Romney Fans Should Be "Pretty Pleased"

posted by Justin Hart | 3:00 PM | permalink

The indispensable Jim Geraghty (whose website should defiantly be on your browser tab on election night) had this to say about Romney's numbers:

I realize everything can change fast in Iowa and New Hampshire, and some are rightly skeptical about the value of polling in a caucus state. I also recognize that some pollsters' methods of figuring out who's a "likely voter" are better than others.
But if I were a Romney guy, I'd be pretty pleased about the trends in those two primary states.
...
Even the South Carolina numbers are starting to look better across several polls — he's leading the field at 29 percent, up 6 percentage points on Giuliani in ARG (okay, really, how is Fred Thompson getting 10 percent in South Carolina?), tied with Giuliani and one point behind Thompson in Winthrop/ETV, in a three-way tie for second and five points behind Thompson in InsiderAdvantage, leading the previous ARG by 3, and down 9 percent in Rasmussen, and even that's five percent higher than the previous poll by that organization.

JG attributes the NH success to the serious attention that Romney has given to the state. One Romney campaign operative told me that they are literally stunned at how little the Rudy folks are in NH. They feel its "there for the taking" and they'll take it if no one else will.

We couldn't agree more!

Labels: New Hampshire, Polls

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Monday, November 12, 2007

New Polls

posted by Publicola | 3:01 PM | permalink

Here's a couple of new polls

First, there's two new polls from New Hampshire. Marist shows Romney extending his lead from their last poll in October. Giuliani gains, McCain is down, Paul is up, and Thompson is in freefall:

Republicans (w/leaners)
Romney 34 (+7 vs. last poll in Oct)
Giuliani 23 (+2)
McCain 13 (-4)
Paul 7 (+5)
Huckabee 7 (-1)
Thompson 5 (-5)
Undecided 12 (-3)

The Boston Globe/University of New Hampshire poll shows a similar picture:

Romney 32 (no trend)
Giuliani 20
McCain 17
Paul 7
Huckabee 5
Thompson 3
Undecided 16

Overall, RCP shows Romney with an aggregate lead of 11 points.

Second, in Florida, the St. Petersburg Times shows Romney's continued improvement there over the last few weeks:

Giuliani 36
Romney 19
McCain 12
Huckabee 9
Thompson 8

Labels: Florida, New Hampshire, Polls

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Thursday, November 8, 2007

Two new polls

posted by Publicola | 1:55 PM | permalink

Romney is out in front BIG on both of these. First, from New Hampshire, Rasmussen shows Romney up by 15:

Romney 32 (+4 vs. last poll Oct. 23)
Giuliani 17 (-2)
McCain 16 (nc)
Huckabee 10 (nc)
Thompson 7 (+1)

Second, Zogby shows Romney's lead at 16 points in Iowa:

Romney 31 (-2 vs. 8/18 poll)
Huckabee 15 (+7)
Giuliani 11 (-3)
Thompson 10 (-2)
McCain 8 (+2)

Also, don't miss today's article in The State talking about Romney's surge in South Carolina in the last month:

As recently as late September, Romney was polling consistently in the single digits and was typically in fourth place. But recent surveys show the former Massachusetts governor surging, as voters have gotten to know Romney and he has earned the endorsement of key evangelicals such as Bob Jones III, former Chancellor of the fundamentalist Greenville university of the same name.
Romney, who is Mormon, has spent considerable time wooing Christian conservatives here and elsewhere and convincing them he’s strong on social issues.
The effort apparently has paid off.

Labels: iowa, New Hampshire, Polls

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	2 Comments: Kicking butt and taking names! By Anonymous, at November 8, 2007 11:18 PM Could/would Mr. Thompson, Mr. Huckabee, Mr. McCain, and Mr. Giuliani please tell me why and how - when they have all stated to Mitt Romney...the latest being Mr. Thompson...that "you can't buy South Carolina", or "you can't buy votes" - will they pleaser inform me just how they plan on getting through to people WITHOUT a decent budget or spending towards advertising and travel? With media time costing more on television, radio and newspaper - just how do they propose trying to get people to pay attention to them? Romney is doing it right and getting it right! GO ROMNEY!!! By Anonymous, at November 9, 2007 12:00 PM Post a Comment

Tuesday, October 30, 2007

New ARG Polls: Romey on top in IA, NH and SC!

posted by Justin Hart | 11:13 AM | permalink

A lot of people don't like ARG polls. They've had problems in the past. But the trends in favor of Romney are undeniable:

American Research Group Republican Iowa Caucus

Romney - 27% (22)
Huckabee - 19% (4)
Giuliani - 16% (21)
McCain - 14% (11)
Thompson - 8% (16)
Tancredo - 2% (1)
Paul - 1% (2)
All others - less than 1%

Survey was conducted Oct 26-29 of 600 likely Republican caucus goers, and has a 4% MoE. Numbers in parentheses are from their Sept poll.

American Research Group New Hampshire Republican Primary

Romney - 30% (24)
Giuliani - 23% (20)
McCain - 17% (20)
Huckabee - 7% (3)
Thompson - 5% (8)
All Others - 1% or less

Survey was conducted Oct 26-29 of 600 likely Republican primary voters and has a 4% MoE. Numbers in parentheses are from the Sept poll.

American Research Group South Carolina GOP Primary

Romney - 29% (26)
Giuliani - 23% (23)
McCain - 13% (15)
Thompson - 10% (10)
Huckabee - 5% (1)
Paul - 4% (2)
Hunter - 2% (1)
All others - 1% or less

Survey was conducted Oct 26-29 of 600 likely Republican primary voters and has a 4% MoE. Numbers in parentheses are from the Sept poll.

Labels: Polls

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Thursday, October 25, 2007

NH Poll

posted by Publicola | 10:42 AM | permalink

The New Hampshire Union Leader (and RCP) is reporting a new poll out by St. Anselm College's Institute of Politics. The results:

Romney 32.4%
Giuliani 21.8
McCain 15.2
Paul 7.4
Huckabee 6
Thompson 5

Labels: New Hampshire, Polls

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Thursday, October 18, 2007

Romney vs. Rudy: The PowerPoint

posted by Justin Hart | 9:18 AM | permalink

Update: Just to clarify: This is an official deck from the campaign, forwarded to fund raisers to help them in their Q4 efforts.

When Romney first entered the fray he was dubbed the "Mr. PowerPoint" and for good reason. He is one of the few candidates who makes regular use of the medium for more intimate group settings and for making the case for his strategy across his network of advocates.

Yesterday, MyManMitt obtained a copy of a "deck" entitled: "Romney vs. Rudy: Different Visions, Different Strategies". Here are some key slides from the deck.

Be sure to come back tomorrow as we bring you live coverage from "The Washington Briefing".


Title Slide: Romney vs. Rudy	What the pundits are saying (sample)	National vs. Local Polls

Romney's Strategy: Tested, Proven	Rudy's Strategy: Unproven	Rudy leads the national polls but...

Primary Calendar	Iowa and New Hampshire	Opportunity for Growth

Fundraising

Labels: fundraising, mitt romney, Polls, rudy, rudy giuliani, strategy

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	4 Comments: The Phenomenal Rise of Mitt Romney It started on Tuesday, January 09, 2007. Mark Joseph of Fox news told us that Mitt Romney would likely not win the Republican nomination for President because Evangelicals in states like New Hampshire (20% of voters), South Carolina (34% of voters), and Iowa (37% of voters) would not support a Mormon candidate. Then, Steve McMahon (Dem Strategist), speaking with Chris Matthews, claimed the same thing. Not only was Romney a Mormon, he was really a “Massachusetts Liberal”. Few if any in the MSM and on the professional pundit shows gave Mitt Romney a chance. John King of CNN summed it up for us, “A successful Olympics, one term as governor and 3 percent in the national polls does not give you the nomination.” My, my . . . things have certainly changed in the past nine months. According to USAElectionPolls.com, Romney’s rise in the national polls has been just short of astounding. Consider these key states: Arizona 10% in January to 18% in October California 3% in January to 11% in October Florida 2% in January to 16.5% in October (wow!) Iowa 8% in January to 24.3% in October Michigan 9% in January to 39% in September* Nevada 11.5% in March* to 23.5% in October New Hampshire 13% in January to 24% in October Ohio 4% in January to 8% in October Pennsylvania 1% in January to 8% in October (wow!) South Carolina 6% in January to 16% in October And here are some interesting averages: Southern States from 4% in January to 16.3% in October Western States from 7.5% in January to 28.2% in October Red States from 7% in January to 17.8% in October Blue States from 6.6% in January to 16% in October (wow!) Consider that Romney is splitting the polls with up to eight other candidates, and he is leading or a close second in those states that the pundits said he had little chance of winning. For Romney, if the next twelve months is anything like the last nine, they will not call him “Mitt the Mormon” anymore. They’ll be calling him Mr. President. *polls were not available in for January/October By Ken Howell, at October 18, 2007 10:40 AM That's a very thorough object lesson in how to run last century's campaign. Gen. McNamara would heartily approve this message. Cheers, Karl at PA for Hizzoner By karlub, at October 18, 2007 12:54 PM Have you ever noticed that when someone can't answer with a logical argument they often resort to mockery? By Mark, at October 18, 2007 2:05 PM A persuasive powerpoint, but it strikes me as defensive, trying to make a case that Mitt's low numbers in national polls and polls in the February 5 states don't mean he's losing. Mitt's strategy may work; it just as easily may not. His real problem is a worse positive/negative ratio even than Hillary. By Anonymous, at October 18, 2007 3:32 PM Post a Comment

Wednesday, October 10, 2007

Romney Surge in Florida?

posted by Justin Hart | 10:42 AM | permalink

Quinnipiac GOP Florida Primary

Rudy Giuliani 27% (28%)
Fred Thompson 19% (17%)
Mitt Romney 17% (11%)
John McCain 8% (10%)
Mike Huckabee 4% (2%)
Ron Paul 2% (2%)
Sam Brownback 1% (0%)
Tom Tancredo 1% (0%)
Don’t Know 16% (18%)

Survey of 345 registered Republicans was conducted October 1-8. The margin of error is +/- 5.3 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted September 3-9 are in parentheses.

Labels: Florida, Polls

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	2 Comments: Nicely done Mitt! Looks like Florida is going the way of South Carolina. Mitt has gone from single digits to making it a real contest in a matter of one month. Also interesting is the fact that 29% of Americans have never heard of Mitt and 15% more have no opinion of him. This means Mitt has significant room to grow. All Americans will know his name once he wins in Iowa. By Slick-Willy, at October 10, 2007 1:24 PM Amen, Slick Willy!! By Beth, at October 10, 2007 11:59 PM Post a Comment

Sunday, September 30, 2007

South Carolina Craziness

posted by Justin Hart | 3:59 PM | permalink

No one expects the race in South Carolina to come out this way... but, what the hey... here it is from ARG:

(Last months in parenthesis)

* Mitt Romney 26% (+17)
* Rudy Giuliani 23% (-3)
* John McCain 15% (+3)http://www.blogger.com/img/gl.link.gif
* Fred Thompson 10% (-11)
* Newt Gingrich 7% (+1)

Sample Size: 600 completed telephone interviews among a random sample of likely Republican primary voters living in South Carolina (524 Republicans and 76 independent voters).

Sample Dates: September 26-29, 2007

h/t Tommy O. from Race42008 who exclaims: "UUHHHHH…. If these are true, then I’ll eat my shorts and endorse Mitt Romney as the second coming of Moses…"

Labels: poll, Polls, south carolina

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	2 Comments: As excited as I am about these numbers, I think this is a fluke. There are no other supporting numbers to say otherwise. So, it's interesting, but probably not valid. By Horatio, at September 30, 2007 5:50 PM I'd love to believe these numbers are accurate, but I agree w/horatio. I'm especially skeptical of ARG polls -- they frequently are way off trends from all other pollsters. Then again, I'm still hoping! By Slick-Willy, at October 1, 2007 10:27 AM Post a Comment

Wednesday, September 5, 2007

Arg's Michigan Numbers

posted by Publicola | 3:17 PM | permalink

In spite of the evidence that Jason posted of Brownback's masses, it is Romney that leads in Michagan according to a new ARG poll:

39% Romney
13% Giuliani
12% F Thompson
9% McCain
4% Huckabee

Labels: Michigan, Polls

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	1 Comments: Another poll showing Romney in the lead in Michigan. He is showing some great strength there, but don't be surprised if the next Michigan poll has it a lot closer. This poll was done over Labor Day weekend. Most polls done over any weekend can be a bit screwy and one over a holiday weekend could be even more messed up. And we are dealing with ARG which isn't the most accurate polling firm anyway. By

New FL Poll

NH Polls

South Carolina

National Polls moving?

Geraghty: Romney Fans Should Be "Pretty Pleased"

New Polls

Two new polls

New ARG Polls: Romey on top in IA, NH and SC!

NH Poll

Romney vs. Rudy: The PowerPoint

Romney Surge in Florida?

South Carolina Craziness

Arg's Michigan Numbers