posted by Publicola | 9:09 PM |
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NRO is all over the VP speculation:Byron York says that he's hearing McCain has made the decision and told his staff.
York then says that while Lieberman would be the choice if McCain would win no matter what, that's not the situation McCain faces.
Yuval Levin then discusses Romneyphobia, stating "Judging by the Obama camp’s assorted efforts to prepare the ground for McCain’s VP choice on Friday, they seem to be terrified of Mitt Romney."
Larry Kudlow says that he's hearing Tim Pawlenty and Kay Bailey Hutchison.
Ramesh Ponnuru notes that KBH is moderately pro-choice.
Finally,
David Frum inexplicably attacks Romney as a VP choice, citing old lines of attack.
Labels: nro
posted by Justin Hart | 9:57 PM |
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Here is the audio from the
Hugh Hewitt show. Don't adjust your browser. I really do speak that fast:
QUICK IMPORTANT CLARIFICATION. In the audio it sounded like I confirmed that Mormons believe the Book of Mormon to be more important than the Bible. The audio actually cut out. I said "this is UNtrue". Just to be clear :)So, lets review.
1) There is ZERO evidence linking TargetPoint the anti-Mormon calls
2) TargetPoint VEHEMENTLY denies they are behind the calls
3) As I indicated on Hugh’s show… I asked my source about Gage’s denial. His response: “Yeah, we knew it wasn’t them already.”
Today. Mark Hemingway
attempted to apologize and wiggle out of a untenable corner defending a theory that has been refuted on every side you turn to.
Late tonight, and to their credit,
Kathryn Lopez from NRO admits: "Mark noted some interesting publicly available connections Monday but there is no real evidence I've read that the Romney campaign had anything to do with it."
Then, RedState issues
a non-retraction, failing to apologize to
Gage & Company for maligning their integrity. To boot, they add another theory to the pot.
Here's the quote of the day from RedState: "we should not be afraid to ask a very plausible question based on, if nothing else, real world experience in politics: did a friend of the candidate hit him in a well meaning but misguided effort to help him?"
So, we can dismiss any evidence that's not there and instead rely on RedState's "real world experience". What?
Labels: Alex Gage, Anti-mormon, anti-romney, mark hemingway, mitt romney push poll, nro, push poll, redstate, target point consulting, targetpoint, western wats
posted by Justin Hart | 4:40 PM |
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Quick note. Justin will be speaking with Hugh Hewitt tonight on his radio show about the push poll controversy.
6:20 PM EasternYou can listen online:
http://krla870.townhall.com/radioschedule/No big updates today. Except for the fact that NRO and RedState have gone silent... apparently confused about the right thing to do.
I should note
this great post by Jim Gearghty at CampaignSpot.
Labels: hugh hewitt, mark hemingway, mitt romney push poll, nro, redstate, western wats
posted by Justin Hart | 10:00 AM |
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Ahhh schadenfreude, the fine rhetorical art of kicking someone while they're down; sticking it to "the man" when "the man" just got stuck; pulling out the gloat as he goes down with the boat.
I really hate to spoil the fun... but there will be no schadenfreude today! (Except for me rhetorically sticking to those who REALLY, REALLY wanted Mitt Romney to push poll his own candidacy?!)
Let's review some of the rhetoric leading up to the brick wall that Alex Gage & Co. dropped on National Review Online and the notion of a Romney self-push-poll. These are taken from comments on the post at Race42008 entitled: "
Let's Be Clear of the Stakes":
1:25 PM "It’s either complete absolution or utter destruction now for Mitt Romney’s candidacy."
1:33 PM "I have the champagne chilling again."
1:50 PM "ROMNEY-IS-TOAST"
1:51 PM "If on the other hand, it was ordered by an *official* of the Romney campaign, then this indeed may be the week history will assess as the death of the Romney campaign."
2:02 PM "Time to check temp on the champagne, while Justin searches for comfort food…"
2:05 PM "The Mitt Romney count down clock has begun……..tick tock……"
2:19 PM "Mitt Romney will not matter in a couple of hours anyway so dont worry people"
Sunday night, I received an email from a fellow blogger, generously tipping me off about a story that could potentially knock Romney off his game in a big way. The story, set to publish in a major news rag Monday morning: a top Romney adviser would be implicated as the source of anti-Mormon "push-poll" surveys conducted across Iowa and New Hampshire.
I was stunned. I had followed the story (and even been part of it) for about three days and after interviewing individuals at the alleged firm that conducted the survey. I was convinced that the Romney campaign was not behind it.
I set my plate overnight to devour a whole flock of crow when the story hit.
The
article, written by Mark Hemingway and published at NRO, gathered all the details of the story in one narrative and added to the mix, supposed evidence from an online bulletin board linking Alex Gage and his firm TargetPoint Consulting to the data collection firm, Western Wats, implicated as the company that conducted the survey.
As I read over the piece the blood went rushing back into my face. This was nothing! The evidence was scant, the connection pithy and the rest of the article --- yawn, I probably wrote half of it myself! The meme that "bulletin-board-post-proves-Romney-push-polled-own-campaign" was weak at best.
But still, Gage & Co. had to answer the charges. Conversations with top bloggers Monday morning indicated that a press release was forthcoming from TargetPoint. I sat on pins and needles the entire day with a constant finger on the refresh button.
Then it came. How do you spell relief?
Just to prove it... here's a snapshot of the two posts I had ready to go. Even with my "high status" with the campaign (joke) I had no insight into what was going to happen:

My head was on the chopping block in the blogosphere being one of the primary debunkers of the "Mitt-did-it!" conspiracy theories. I braced myself for the worst. If the Romney campaign were truly the source of the push poll... the club fashioned by opponents is too big to imagine.
I'm also a bit perturbed. How did NRO not wait 4 hours to talk to TargetPoint? How does RedState have the gaul to publish what they did requisite to the thin evidence from Hemingway? And don't get me started on Mark's refusal to let it go.
To be fair, I think Hemingway got caught up in a a whirlwind of Mormon connections. You see, he thinks the force of his evidence are the coincidences taken as a whole. The Lindorfs, Amanda, the contributors, based in Utah...
Among Mormons there's an inside joke that the 6 degrees of Kevin Bacon become the 4 degrees of Mormonism. To wit: you can find any other Mormon within a breadth of 4 LDS members.
For example, how many ways do you know the candidate you support? How many degrees of separation does it take you to get to John McCain or Rudy? Personally, I know Mitt from when I was an infant (my Mom and Ann were in the same maternity ward when I was born in Boston). I also know him through a long time family friend. And my best friend's uncle is married to someone who works closely with Romney. Is there some super secret community of Mormons that plans to take over the country by getting Romney elected? No. Its just that Mormons marry other Mormons, marry early in life, and have lots of kids. (Did I mention I'm 35 with 3 kids, and my oldest is 12?)
- The fact that the firm was in Utah? Moot. Utah perfected the art of the call center from innovators like WordPerfect and the large group of health drinks in the state. (Also, apparently, Utahns have neutral accents which helps in cold calls).
- The fact that the firm was owned by the Lindorfs? Moot. They divested of their assets years ago.
- The fact that the firm employs people who donated to Mitt? Moot. A LOT of people have donated to Mitt in Utah. (In fact, I'm surprised that out of 1500 employees only a handful have donated to the campaign).
- The fact that TippingPoint and other "affiliated" Romney campaigns have used Western Wats? Moot. Its the single largest data collection firm in the world. They handle all sorts of 3rd party work and all sorts of campaigns using them including firms employed by Romney competitors. They handle over 7000 projects every year.
- The Mormon factor? Do I really have to answer this? The Mormon cabal is not out to submarine the other candidates by conducting a push poll against their chosen one. And he isn't even their chosen one! I can't tell you how many Mormon Ron Paul supporters there are.... every other day I get some note berating me for not supporting the "true" constitution guy in the race. (Mormons are big on the Constitution)
The relief I feel is only tempered by the fact that we still don't know WHO did it. (More on this later).
Labels: Alex Gage, david brody mitt romney, mark hemingway, mitt romney push poll, mormons, national review, nro, push poll, redstate, tippingpoint, utah, western wats
posted by Justin Hart | 7:57 AM |
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UPDATE: I caught wind of this story last night and immediately called my source. He told me that he would be very surprised if it were connected to Romney & Co. Then he said: "our client is not political. At best we're a 3rd party vendor in this." So the question is this: Target Consulting does fit the 3rd party story but they are decidedly political. More to come... stay tuned.
National Review Online has a
new article up by Mark Hemingway digging deeper into the notion of whether or not the Romney campaign itself conducted the recent surveys with apparently anti-Mormon messages. (I'm proud to say that he links to MMM quite a bit for his information).
Mark's article is pretty balanced but is obviously digging hard for a connection. There is only one or two more bits of information:
- Hemingway makes a connection between Target Point Consulting, Alex Gage (Romney's number cruncher), and Western Wats (the company most closely connected to the recent calls). In short, the Romney campaign has paid Target Point Consulting $720,000 during this cycle. There is also evidence that Target Point has used Western Wats in the past.
- Amanda Earnshaw, the caller who donated $2300, is part of a family that has been deeply involved in the Romney campaign. Mark tries to bring the connection between Amanda and a supposed caller in an August poll that someone complained about. This is periphery evidence at best.
First, the notion that a single link between Target Point and Western Wats exists is not surprising. My source tells me that they are frequently a 3rd party vendor in many of these efforts.
The rest of it is pretty much stuff you already know from yours truly and others.
I will say this. This connection is logically plausible but totally unproven and we need to get to the bottom of this very quickly.
Having re-read the article I'm not convinced. The evidence is pretty scant and stretching to accuse Romney as he does. Let's review:
- Lindorfs - disproven
- Amanda - irrelevant (highly coincidental if true)
- Other donors - irrelevant
- Target Consulting -> WW --> Gage --> Romney - plausible but the proof is a single entry from a bulletin board
- Related Romney camps -they exist, but its the largest data collection firm in the world. Chances are a lot of campaigns use them
Labels: Alex Gage, nro, polling, target point consulting, western wats
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