The first "primary" race in Virginia just took place today! And Romney won.

At 1:30 today, Mitt Romney filed 15,000 signatures to meet the requirements for Virginia presidential primary.

Every campaign in the race will tell you that Virginia has the most difficult process to get on the ballot. You have to submit 10,000 signatures with at least 400 signatures from each 11 congressional districts. Each county or city entity has to have its own petition page for signatures and you need the voter address and in some cases the last four digits of the social security number for it to be valid. People who collect signatures have to be registered voters in Virginia (in other words you can't farm this out to high schoolers).

The VA ballot submissions opened up yesterday and as far as we know Romney is the first candidate to file.

Other candidates like Huckabee are paying 50 cents per signature. Thompson and Edwards are just getting started.

It will be interesting to see on December 14th who the actual candidates will be on the ballot.

As background, there are only a handful of paid staffers for Romney in Virginia but dozens (if not hundreds) of volunteers chipped in during the elections in November to help get the signatures required. Whole Saturdays were dedicated to rounding up the needed votes. Unlike other campaign Romney did this with a grassroots flare and did not outsource it.

Kudos to Team Romney, Lt. Gov. Bolling, and the VA team for making this happen.

This is one more example of why Romney is the best candidate to face the formidable forces of the DEMS in the general election.

Labels: grassroots, primaries, primary, Virginia

Here's the thing, no matter how popular the flavor of the month is (Gingrich, Giuliani, Thompson) the real question is "Who can win?" We answer this question by asking "Who's got game?"

You see, you cannot win simply by a popular vote a year out from Iowa. You have to show "game"!

The chart below ranks the GOP candidates based on all the elements of a ground game (or, at least, all the elements we could think of). This is essentially a "ranking" or "scoring" chart showing the "tier" rank for each candidate.

The lower score (higher rank) shows serious ground game.

Labels: ground game, John McCain, mitt romney, primaries, primary, score

There has been a lot of jive-talk in the blogosphere (can I say jive-talk?) about Mitt Romney having a bad week. I indicated to a few people last week that he has the endorsement edge and probably the money edge as well; he organized a robust South Carolina team and a very solid Georgia team.

"Oh," I say in realization, "you mean he had a bad week in the blogosphere?!" Here are the facts of where we stand and why I'm not worried (and I'm not worried for different reasons than those that help Dean Barnett sleep well.

1) Nobody but political junkies are paying attention to the election right now. - Accoding to a Pew Research Report just 24% of Republicans are paying attention to the 2008 race right now.

2) The early polls reflect name recognition not voting decisions - For example, in late February 2003 Joe Liberman was leading the Democratic contendors.

3) Romney is better positioned than past candidates at this point in the race. Let me draw you a picture:

For the dark horse candidates at this point in the race (especially pointing out Governors from small states) Carter was at 1% in 1975; DUkakis 1%; Clinton 2% in 1992. Even McCain stood at just 3% in 1999. Once again, name recognition does not a primary make.

4) Romney has STRONG favorability ratings among voters who have heard about him. A recent Quinnipiac poll clocked this number at 83%.

5) How about what really matters - the KEY primary states? - Let's take Iowa and New Hampshire:

Romney's polling at this point is even more impressive when you consider that his December 2006 numbers in Iowa and New Hampshire were 6% and 9%.

In short, this is a historically excellent start for a no-name small-state governor running for President.

Labels: bill clinton, carter, comparison, dukakis, iowa, mitt romney, New Hampshire, Polls, primaries, primary

Honesty is a good thing! Here's a post by Karol at AlaramingNews. Straight talk about Rudy's chances in 2008:

I love Rudy Giuliani. He was a phenomenal mayor of New York and a major influence on why I fell in love with politics. Previous to him, I had never seen a politician make an actual, tangible difference. He was beyond impressive. I've called him my all-time favorite politician. I've writen that he's the man. I get all emotional over Rudy.

I think its fair to say that everyone has a bit of emtion around Rudy. There is something untouchable about the guy because of his association with the day that changed us all. Karol continues:

But I've worked in elections in four states, two blue states (NY and PA), one red state (GA) and one purple state (CO). I know who votes in Republican primaries. I know they are not like the blogosphere. I know what matters to them. And I know that Rudy, as phenomenal, amazing, terrific, the bestest as he is, can't win. The abortion issue alone will cripple him. Abortion politics are central in primaries on both sides. And that's just the tip of the iceberg in this case.

This is also fair and true. Sadly, Rudy's unrepentant pro-choice stance (even pro-partial birth abortion!) will likely sideline his chances in the GOP primaries. MOre from Karol:

I've never wanted to be so wrong about anything. I will eat every one of my words, happily, if what I am predicting won't come to pass. I will celebrate a Giuliani candidacy so sincerely. And I truly believe that if he makes it out of the primary, he wins. I just don't think he makes it out.

Thanks for your honesty Karol.

Labels: campaign, primary, rudy