Home > News > The oil price of finished products or the largest increase under the new mechanism is expected to increase by about 200 yuan per ton

The oil price of finished products or the largest increase under the new mechanism is expected to increase by about 200 yuan per ton

wallpapers News 2020-08-09

Although the situation of oversupply in the domestic oil product market continues to exist, the oil price may experience the largest increase since the implementation of the new pricing mechanism in March this year on July 19.

According to the current trend of international oil prices, the price adjustment window for refined oil will open again on the 19th, with an increase rate of about 200 yuan per ton a maximum of 300-350 yuan per ton.

Since the beginning of July, the international oil price has continued to rise due to the turbulence in Egypt the economic data of developed countries in Europe the United States.

The WTI oil price in New York has increased by 9.

7% compared with the end of June, Brent oil price has increased by 6.5%. Data released on July 15 by Xinhua's oil price system showed that the average price change rate of a package of crude oil on July 12 was as high as 5.01%. According to the current situation, refined oil may receive the largest increase since the implementation of the new pricing mechanism in March.

Longzhong Petrochemical network refined oil analyst Si bin believes that at present, the international crude oil market is difficult to have new good news injection, the expectation of oil price callback this week is strong.

In view of the high average price change rate of the previous package of crude oil, the domestic refined oil price is likely to rise on the 19th, the increase range is expected to be about 200 yuan per ton.

In addition, the recent US Federal Reserve officials on QE have different opinions, it is expected that crude oil will remain at a high level in the near future.

Jinyindao analyst Han Jingyuan believes that the refined oil price adjustment window will open on the 19th, the increase rate will not be less than 200 yuan / ton, which will stimulate the mentality of the downstream market.

Domestic supply dem should be taken into consideration in the reform.

Although the price of refined oil products was raised on the 19th, the basic principle of oversupply in the domestic oil product market is in fact out of touch with the price rise.

Throughout the several oil price hikes since this year, most of them run counter to the dem situation.

According to the latest statistics of the General Administration of customs, in the first half of the year, China imported 21.

6 million tons of refined oil, up 6.

8% year-on-year.

14.

7 million tons of oil products were exported, up 23.

9% year-on-year.

Analysts said that the overall supply of gasoline diesel in China exceeded dem this year, leading to a decrease in imports an increase in exports.

According to media reports, the national development Reform Commission recently interviewed some oil product production operation enterprises to underst the domestic oil product market situation study the change trend of oil product supply dem in the second half of the year.

The purpose is to alleviate the imbalance of domestic supply dem the high storage pressure of oil gas.

On June 22, the oil price of finished products increased for the second time since the implementation of the new pricing mechanism.

At that time, the increase of 100 yuan / ton was in contrast with the cold oil market.

Chen Qing, an analyst with Zhuo Chuang information, said that the current pricing mechanism could be described as "dancing face to face" with the international crude oil price, but it did not consider the supply dem situation of domestic downstream market.

At present, the financial attribute of international crude oil is gradually becoming the dominant factor of price, the domestic crude oil dependence degree is as high as 57.

1%, the domestic energy security will be affected.

"The consideration of supply dem in the domestic market will be the focus of the next reform of China's refined oil pricing mechanism.

" According to the calculation of jinyindao, the average price of reference crude oil varieties (WTI, Brent, Brent DTD, Dubai ESPO) was 106.

258 US dollars per barrel, the crude oil change rate was 5.06%. Due to the low benchmark price of reference crude oil change rate in this round of pricing cycle, the international crude oil market price has maintained a sustained upward trend recently.

Since the domestic price adjustment on July 5, the crude oil change rate has increased significantly.

After the price adjustment on July 5, according to the principle of "ten working days", it is expected that the next price adjustment window of refined oil will be opened on July 19, that is, this Friday, will be implemented as soon as the early morning of July 20.

Han Jingyuan, an analyst at jinyindao, believes that even if the international crude oil price falls back in the next few days, the crude oil change rate is estimated to be more than 4.5%. Therefore, it is likely that the maximum price of refined oil will be adjusted upward by about 300 yuan / ton or even more than 300 yuan / ton on Friday.

Then converted into price increase, the upward adjustment range of gasoline diesel is about 0.22-0.26 yuan per liter.


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TRUNNANO (aka. Luoyang Tongrun Nano Technology Co. Ltd.) is a trusted global chemical material supplier & manufacturer with over 12 years' experience in providing super high-quality chemicals and Nanomaterials. The nitride powder produced by our company has high purity, fine particle size and impurity content. Please contact us if necessary.
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